One Move the Arizona Diamondbacks Must Make

Williams posted the worst ERA of his career (4.79) in the 2025 season. But that number falls nowhere close to the true story of the veteran righty's season.

A look at his peripherals with New York painted a picture of an elite, reliable leverage reliever, even if he did not serve as the Yankees' primary closer in the latter end of the season.

Despite the raw ERA, Williams' FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was a stellar 2.68. His expected ERA was 3.07 and his expected FIP was 2.95. He was worth +10 Pitching Run Value (per Statcast) despite the overall poor run prevention numbers.

Opponents' expected batting average against him was a meager .198 — a 96th percentile figure. His 35.7% hard-hit rate was well above average, as well.

Essentially, Williams was getting unlucky — both in terms of batted ball luck and with regard to an extremely poor effort from the Yankees' infield defense for much of the season.

Over his final 19 appearances, Williams surrendered just five earned runs. And four of those came in one blowup appearance. It's also worth a mention that he did (mostly) get the job done in the ninth inning, going 18-for-22 in save situations and tacking on 15 holds.

He struck out over 13 batters per nine innings, picking up whiffs and chases at his usual high clip. By nearly all metrics that involved Williams' own personal execution, he did not actually have a poor overall performance in the 2025, just poor results.

Spotrac's market value estimates Williams to receive a one-year, $5.7 million deal. Even with the poor ERA, that number seems exceptionally low for an All-Star closer of his caliber.

The Diamondbacks do not have much to spend this offseason, as Arizona is expected to put forward a reduced payroll in the 2026 season. But they still desperately need a defined closer, as well as relief (and rotation) depth across the board.

It's not going to be cheap to sign (or trade for) a legitimate relief weapon. The D-backs need to be willing to make that investment if they want their bullpen results to improve in the coming year.

Are there downsides? Of course. Williams might cost a high dollar amount. He might severely underperform. He might suffer a season-ending injury.

It wouldn't be close to the first time that's happened to the D-backs. They may as well take the risk, when the payoff is back-end stability for the first time since Paul Sewald in the latter half of 2023.

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