One-on-One: MLB attendance is down again. What's wrong?

Yardbarker MLB writers Demetrius Bell and Matt Whitener address the hottest questions in baseball. This week's topic: Attendance issues.

Whitener: Home attendance for 18 of 30 MLB teams has dropped this season compared to last season. Through Thursday, a little more than 513,000 fewer fans have attended games this year compared to 2018. Home attendance for the Orioles, Giants and Blue Jays is down well over 100,000 fans per team. Overall attendance dipped below 30,000 a game last season for the first time since 2003, according to an Associated Press report. Why does baseball have an attendance issue?

Bell: When it comes to the early season, it’s partly due to kids still being in school and games falling on school nights or during the school day. Unless a school helps organize a field trip to the yard, chances are you probably aren’t going to see a bunch of kids at the ballpark, which is crucial since MLB has been trying to  get that younger crowd back into the stadium. Teams will always get a bump once school lets out for the summer, but will it be enough to make up for losses during the first two months? 

Consider the teams already out of the race. If you’re a baseball fan in Baltimore, where attendance is down more than 120,000 fans already compared to 2018, you're rooting for the road team or you just really love baseball and Camden Yards. The Orioles are already 19.5 games out of first. The team is not an enticing entertainment option, especially when there are 81 home games a season.

Whitener: MLB has a multi-tiered perception problem. For some, it appears to be out of touch with the times, falling behind more appealing and faster-paced games. For others, it is a tough sport to identify with -- the presence of African-Americans in the sport continues to decline. Black ballplayers made up only 7.7% of the league rosters as of April 2019.  There is also the often-crippling cost of attendance for a family of four -- it can often exceed $200 per trip, and that's just for tickets. That doesn't factor in the often-exorbitant cost of concessions. For many, it just makes more sense to watch from home ... or to outright ignore it.

Local broadcast numbers and streaming options are still performing well for baseball, so could the game's attendance numbers benefit by blacking out more games and enticing fans into the stadium instead?

Bell: I disagree. I believe putting games on TV as much as possible is the best way to advertise the game. The Chicago Blackhawks used to black out home games -- their former owner feared attendance would drop if games were on TV.  With games blacked out, attendance dropped and didn’t recover until the owner’s son took over and reversed the TV policy. Granted, there were plenty of other factors that went into the team’s revival from an attendance standpoint, but putting those home games back on TV was a big factor.

Whitener: Without a doubt, if there is one place that baseball has continued to thrive, it is as a broadcast powerhouse. Fox spent $5.1 billion to extend its broadcast rights with the MLB for another seven years in November, a surefire co-sign in the belief of the current viability of the league. Meanwhile, MLB has continued to be at forefront of providing streaming and regional TV access.

MLB's At-Bat app is a  conduit to all teams on a daily basis, and regional cable renewals have netted billions overall for teams over the past decade. But the increased access to games has also come while attendance has plummeted, so could too much access be an issue? The league’s exposure success could be undermining its gate receipts. Perhaps it would be in the best interest of the game to make it tougher to stay at home when a game is in town. Raising the price on the At-Bat app could work, but that could be a risky play for a sport that is fighting for fans. 

Whitener: How much of a carryover factor is tanking having on attendance figures?

Bell: I think it’s a big factor. Unless you’re in a new stadium or a historical landmark like Wrigley Field, your team’s on-field performance is going to play a big role in your team’s attendance. Most fans will pay to see a winner, but those same fans will also decide to watch at home or just do anything else other than go to see their favorite or local team get beat down for yet another game. Tanking is a viable strategy, but nobody wants to see losing.

Whitener: The lack of parity in the game is undeniably playing a huge role in keeping fans away. It is no coincidence that six of the teams with the lowest 2018 attendance are also picking in the top 10 of next week’s draft. But there is not a straight line between quality of team and numbers of attendance either. The A's, a wild-card team last season, drew the fifth-fewest fans in 2018. This season, the Tampa Bay Rays are a surprise contender but are next to last in the majors in attendance. 

On Tuesday, the second-place Rays, now a 1/2 game behind the Yankees, drew an embarrassing team all-time team low of 5,786 fans against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, there are thriving metropolitan areas (Montreal has 4.1 million inhabitants) that are without a team. So, yes, while baseball certainly is being hurt by its lack of parity. But perhaps it's time for MLB to consider relocating teams that don't draw. 

In comparison with the NBA or NFL, Major League Baseball has a clear lack of crossover, mainstream superstars. How much does that absence account for attendance issues?

Bell: In the NBA, if the Lakers come into town for a game, LeBron will be a huge draw. It’s like going to a completely different event compared to your average NBA game. The venue will always be either sold out or close to it, and the arena will just have a different energy since the fans know there’s a superstar in the building. I love the Angels' Mike Trout and would be excited to see him play, but I also know he probably doesn't make much of a dent on attendance numbers. There are no huge superstars in baseball who will bring fans to a ballpark. Unless it’s a retiring legend making their final go-around, fans don't go to the ballpark just to see one player.

Whitener: Baseball certainly does not have a talent issue, as it could be easily argued that the game is at a 20-year high in talent. Trout is arguably on par with LeBron James/Kevin Durant/James Harden/pick your favorite NBA superstar in terms of skill at his sport. But he has a fraction of their name recognition. Unlike the NBA, the MLB is horrible at shining a light on its stars in a way that takes them outside of the just the confines of the sport. 

In ESPN’s 2019 World Fame 100, based on global Google searches, not a single baseball player appeared. There is little buzz around any of its top performers. There is undeniable drawing power in having a superstar among your ranks. Ask the Cleveland Cavaliers, who drew 49,705 fewer fans in 2019 after losing LeBron.