Phillies Place Jesús Luzardo On Injured List

The Phillies announced that left-hander Jesús Luzardo has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, with left shoulder inflammation. Right-hander Grant Holman has been recalled in a corresponding move. Prior to the official announcement, manager Don Mattingly passed the info onto reporters, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic.

Luzardo was scratched from his most recent start due to some stiffness in his throwing shoulder. An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage. The Phils initially expected that he would feel better after a few days of rest but he hasn’t progressed as much as hoped, so he is heading to the IL. Per Gelb, the Phillies hope Luzardo can make a playoff appearance but his timeline is broadly uncertain right now.

The lefty has been having a fantastic season, with a 2.87 earned run average across 29 starts. His 30.4% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate are all strong figures. FanGraphs has credited him with 5.5 wins above replacement this year, which puts him fourth in the National League behind Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez and Chris Sale.

Losing a pitcher of that caliber would be rough at any time but it’s especially notable at this part of the calendar. The Phillies are currently in a tight National League Wild Card race. The Cubs hold the top slot, half a game up on the Phils. The Padres hold the third spot, just one game behind Philadelphia. The Diamondbacks are 2.5 games back of San Diego.

That’s still a healthy position for the Phillies to be in. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them a 95.6% chance of getting in. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more bullish, giving the Phillies a 98.4% chance. But losing Luzardo doesn’t help. And even if getting into the postseason is almost guaranteed, there are still other things at stake. Catching the Cubs for the top Wild Card spot would mean home-field advantage in the first round, for instance. Falling to sixth could lead to facing the Dodgers in the second round.

Then, of course, there’s the question of the club’s playoff rotation. Ideally, the club’s top three in a playoff series would be Sánchez, Luzardo and Wheeler in some order. If Luzardo needs to miss some time, then Andrew Painter and/or Aaron Nola will move up in importance. Yesterday, Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that the club still hadn’t decided who would be the #4 starter in the playoffs. One of those two might need to be bumped up to #3.

Neither Nola nor Painter is having a good season on the whole. The veteran Nola has a 4.69 ERA over his 30 starts. His strikeout and walk numbers are still decent. The ERA is mostly due to home run troubles. Some metrics, such as SIERA, expect home run numbers to even out over time. Nola’s 3.94 SIERA this year is a good example of that. However, this is Nola’s fourth season in a row with a home run to fly ball ratio of 15.6% or higher. League average is 11.6% this year, for reference. As that trend continues, it becomes harder to expect him to regress in that department. His SIERA has been in the high 3.00s that whole time but his actual ERA has mostly been above that, including a 6.01 ERA last year.

He does at least have some momentum on his side. He had a 5.75 ERA in the first half but has a 3.08 ERA since the All-Star break. However, his rate stats have mostly been the same, apart from better sequencing luck. Prior to the break, his 67.9% strand rate was a few ticks south of this year’s 72.3% average. But Nola has been at 96.2% lately.

Painter has also been better of late, but with a bit more to back it up. On the whole, he has a 5.54 ERA in his rookie season. He posted a 7.06 ERA in his first 14 appearances. He struck out just 17.7% of opponents and his 38.9% ground ball rate was also a few ticks shy of par. He got optioned back down to Triple-A in June. He was recalled in late July and has since posted a 3.58 ERA in nine starts, with an improved 22.6% strikeout rate and 46% grounder rate.

For the meantime, the focus will be on clinching a playoff spot with Wheeler, Sánchez, Painter and Nola in four rotation spots. Per Gelb, the Phils may do a bullpen game soon, possibly on Friday. Assuming the Phils make it into the postseason, they will then have to make some decisions about who gets the ball, whether Luzardo is back in the mix or not.