Phillies vs. Yankees odds, pick, prediction for 7/30: The F5 bet to make

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Tuesday, July 30, 6:40 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola has been great for the Phillies this season, owning a 3.44 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 130 2/3 innings pitched. He has a 3.38 xERA and 3.59 SIERA, so his underlying numbers largely support his results this year.

Nola ranks in the 82nd percentile in walk rate and 61st percentile in strikeout rate. He has also avoided hard contact, sitting in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate, 65th percentile in barrel rate and 69th percentile in average exit velocity.

Nola has generated ground balls 45.2% of the time as well, a mark that ranks in the 62nd percentile.

On the other side, the Philadelphia offense has impressed this season. It ranks seventh in wRC+, sixth in wOBA, seventh in SLG, fourth in OBP and ninth in ISO. They have the fifth-best walk rate and a strikeout rate near league average.

The Phillies also sit 11th in hard-hit rate, 13th in barrel rate and 19th in exit velocity. The fact they rank eighth in line-drive rate helps with this production, but they still may be slightly outperforming their underlying numbers because they don’t hit the ball extremely hard.

New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole will make the start for New York on Tuesday night. He has been working his way back from injury, and I thought he had turned a corner in his recovery before he was brutalized by the Mets to the tune of six earned runs in a loss last Wednesday.

Cole has now made seven starts with 35 innings pitched and has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.63 xERA. However, he also owns a 3.92 SIERA and a 5.52 FIP.

To say that Cole's numbers have been confusing would be an understatement. Thus, I don’t really know what to make of his 2024 performance yet.

Cole’s fastball velocity has been increasing. He's back up to 95.9 mph on average, which ranks in the 81st percentile, so I don’t believe that to be a concern as far as his stuff goes.

Cole also has a Stuff+ mark of 112, which ranks 21st out of 180 starting pitchers with 30-plus innings pitched this season. He posted a 121 Stuff+ last year, so while the number is down a bit, he has still been displaying really good stuff.

His Location+ comes in at 100, though, so it seems like his location may be causing pitches to be hit hard. He ranks in the seventh percentile in barrel rate, 57th percentile in hard-hit rate and 32nd percentile in average exit velocity.

Cole has also generated a ground-ball rate of just 35.9%, which ranks in the 16th percentile and is the lowest mark of his career.

At the plate, the Yankees offense had slowed down a little bit over the last month, but they have now reclaimed the No. 1 spot in wRC+. They also rank first in wOBA, third in SLG and second in OBP and ISO.

New York walks at the highest rate in the league and strikes out at the ninth-lowest rate, so it's putting plenty of balls in play.

With the number of balls the Bronx Bombers have put in play, they've done some damage. They sit are fourth in hard-hit rate, first in barrel rate, and third in exit velocity. They're also first in xwOBA and xSLG while ranking second in xwOBAcon.

This was already one of the best offenses in the league based around Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton, but they've now added Jazz Chisholm to the mix. He provides an instant upgrade to this unit.

Last night, he smashed two home runs in his second game on the roster and should provide some more firepower going forward.

Phillies vs Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

I regretted backing Cole last week when he got blown up, but I do think he’s mostly back.

Cole’s Stuff+ numbers are good and his fastball velocity is back up, so I believe he'll fully bounce back once he can avoid allowing quality contact.

Nola has pitched great this season, but he has a tough matchup tonight against what may be the best offense in the game.

The Yankees offense is the best side here. I love backing the Bronx Bombers as underdogs, so I’ll be taking the Yankees on the first-five moneyline at +100.

I believe in Cole and this offense to hang tough with Nola and the Phillies.

Pick: Yankees F5 ML (+100 at DraftKings · Play to -105)