Pirates' Mitch Keller is baseball's biggest tough-luck loser

Mitch Keller took the loss for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday afternoon, giving him a league-leading 10 losses for the season. The Pirates are also just 3-13 in his first 16 starts, while he owns an individual record of just 1-10.

With numbers like that, it might be easy to come to the conclusion that Keller is having a dreadful season and not really giving his team a chance to win.

That could not be further from the truth.

He's actually having a really strong season and might be the biggest tough-luck loser in the league.

He went 5.2 innings in Saturday's 3-2 loss, allowing just two earned runs and lowering his ERA on the season to a very respectable 4.02. It's not great. But it's not awful. He's pretty much a guaranteed quality start (or close to it) every time he takes the mound and almost always gives his team a chance to win.

He has pitched into the sixth inning in 13 of his 16 starts, allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts and his 11 quality starts. He is one of just eight starters to have at least 11 this season, while nobody has recorded more than 12.

Just for comparison's sake on what a team's record should look like with those sort of numbers, here are the team records (and individual records in parentheses) of the eight starters to record at least 11 quality starts this season.

• Max Fried, New York Yankees: 12-4 (9-2)
• Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants: 9-7 (7-5)
• Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates: 8-8 (4-6)
• Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies: 11-4 (7-2)
• Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3-13 (1-10)
• Framber Valdez, Houston Astros: 10-5 (8-4)
• Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves: 9-6 (5-4)
• Hunter Brown, Houston Astros: 11-4 (8-3)

Let's crunch some numbers on this. 

Keller and his teammate, Paul Skenes, are the only two pitchers on this list who do not have individual winning records or team winning records in their starts.

Combined, the Pirates are 11-21 when Skenes and Keller start (a .343 winning percentage), despite them being two of the most consistent pitchers in the league and always giving them a chance. Individually, Skenes and Keller are just 5-16 in terms of their own win-loss records. 

The other pitchers on this list have combined for an individual record of 44-20, while their teams are 62-30 (a .673 winning percentage). 

Pitchers this good and production shouldn't have records this bad, and it is a testament to the lack of offense and run support the Pirates give. As bad as it has been for Skenes at times, it has been even worse for Keller.