Pirates Player Most Likely to Be Traded This Offseason

The Pirates' next two highest-paid players next season are Reynolds and O'Hearn, who will make $14.25 million and $15 million, respectively.

Reynolds will be in the fifth year of an eight-year, $106.75 million contract extension he signed in 2023, and O'Hearn is in the final year of a two-year, $29 million contract he signed last offseason.

Pittsburgh had a solid offense last season, so moving Keller will be more about his contract rather than acquiring lineup pieces.

The Pirates will spend much more money on arbitration this year, with center fielder Oneil Cruz heading into his second year and starting pitcher Paul Skenes entering his first year, as well as the eight other players they have to account for.

Pittsburgh may want to spread Keller's salary elsewhere throughout their roster, and also to sign other players, such as re-signing second baseman Brandon Lowe.

A Steady Decline for Keller

Keller had a poor season in 2026, which ended with a right arm teres major muscle injury, knocking him out for most of the final two months of the season.

He had a strong start, a 4-1 record in his first eight starts, 35 strikeouts to 14 walks and a 2.86 ERA over 47 innings pitched.

Keller then posted a 2-7 record in his next 14 starts, 13 home runs and 53 earned runs allowed over 68.2 innings pitched for a 6.95 ERA.

The Pirates veteran has had a decline in his Stuff+, per Fangraphs, going from 107 to 94 since his 2023 All-Star campaign.

Mitch Keller's Stuff+ Decline From 2023 to 2026

Keller's four-seam fastball velocity has also dropped two ticks from 2023, 95.2 mph, to 2026, 93.3 mph.

His sinker and sweeper also regressed last season, both going from +3 run value in 2025 to-4 and -9 in 2026, respectively, per Statcast.

Keller coming off an injury also makes it tougher for him, 31 in 2027, to come back and be the pitcher he was in 2023 who earned his big contract extension.

Looking Towards Other Starting Pitching Options

The Pirates have a strong rotation heading into next season: youthful and with the potential to be one of the best in baseball.

2025 National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes leads the way, 2026 All-Star Braxton Ashcraft is back, Jared Jones showed promise after returning from a long-term injury and Bubba Chandler just completed his first full season as a starting pitcher.

Keller should fill an important role in this group, being the veteran and someone who can take on longer outings without a risk of severe injury.

The Pirates may not believe that Keller can do that anymore, or even if he can, they can turn to a cheaper starting pitcher to fill that role.

This could come by signing a left-handed starting pitcher, after moving Keller, or looking at some of the rookies the Pirates have.

Right-handed pitchers in Khristian Curtis, Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly, as well as left-handed pitchers in Hunter Barco and Connor Wietgrefe could all feature in the Pirates rotation next season.