Pirates Should’ve Made Paul Skenes Call Earlier

He's only gone seven innings once in this span, against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on July 18, and pitched six innings four times.

Skenes has also had his fastball velocity drop precipitously, with it averaging 96.9 mph this season, from 98.2 mph in 2025, when he won the National League Cy Young Award, and 98.8 mph in 2024, when he won the National League Rookie of the Year Award.

His drop in velocity is by design, as he's trying to avoid injury, but his latest start caused many Pirates fans and others some concern, as he averaged just 95.7 mph vs. the Marlins, a drop of 1.2 mph.

Skenes has had success with his fastball this season, but that serious of drop of velocity isn't a good sign.

He's also struggled putting hitters away with two strikes and given up bigger hits, with his slugging percentage up 68 points from last season and advanced metrics showing hitters getting farther hits off of him, resulting in extra bases.

Skenes also only threw 65 pitches over five inning against the Marlins, the third-shortest start for him this season, another worrying sign that makes his extra rest even more necessary..

Pirates GM Ben Cherington Keeps Faith in Skenes

The Pirates have shown faith in Skenes turning it around this season, but he definitely could've used some more rest earlier in the season.

Skenes' struggles can happen to any elite pitcher and this doesn't necessarily mean that he's on a downturn for his career, but does mean that he isn't quite as dominant as he was his first two seasons.

Pirates general manager Ben Cherington spoke about Skenes on The Pirates Insider Show on 93.7 The Fan and said that that there isn't any injury issues with Skenes and that they're hoping these extra couple of days.

He also still thinks that Skenes has had a great season and that he's still one of the better pitchers in the game, despite his slump.

"....And with that said, he’s still been one of the best starting pitchers in the National League this year," Cherington said. "He’s among the league leaders in strikeouts. His strikeout and walk rates are exactly where they’ve been in the past and he’s on pace for a 4-5 win season for a starting pitcher.

"This has been an excellent year for him, and, like other elite pitchers, there’s going to be small stretches of time where it just doesn’t feel or come together quite the way it does at other times. I am certainly, we are betting on Paul to work through this period, like he does everything else, and come out on the other side. We’re very lucky he’s a Pirate, that’s for sure."

Why Cherington's Praise of Skenes Falls Short

Cherington isn't going to come out and seriously criticize Skenes, especially for how historically dominant he was the first two seasons of his career.

Skenes still hasn't had the best season and there have been many other pitchers in MLB that have been more dominant than him.

He has a 9-11 record in 25 starts in 2026, a 3.88 ERA over 134.2 innings pitched, 166 strikeouts to 37 walks, a .228 batting average allowed and a 1.12 WHIP.

Most of Skenes' best pitching also came prior to his slump, as he posted a 1.09 ERA over eight starts from April 1 to May 12, including a near perfect game vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, then back-to-back outings where he threw eight scoreless innings vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.

His ERA is double that off what it was last year and the year before, 1.97 in 2025 and 1.96 in 2024, while his BAA and WHIP have also increased from amongst the best last season to 22nd each.

Skenes does have some advanced metrics that favor him, with the both the 10th-lowest expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 3.20 and expected ERA at 3.11. while also having the eighth-best WAR at 3.7.

If there's no serious injury concern with Skenes, than this is something he can bounce back from, which the Pirates hope will happen this season, but at least over the offseason.

Some adversity for Skenes may not be a bad thing, but it's clear right now that he's been through a lot and this break can give him a chance to find what he's been missing the past few months.