Pittsburgh Pirates Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Pittsburgh Pirates Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 41

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 3

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 2; Termarr Johnson, Mitch Jebb

YOHAN RAMIREZ (4.135): $1,500,000 ($675k raise)

The Case: Ramirez enters from an $825k Arb-1 salary after a strong platform season in a middle-relief role, making 64 appearances and throwing 83 IP with 9 holds, 2 saves and a 2.93 ERA.

Jimmy Herget (2025, $700k raise) is a very recent comparison from a nearly identical $850k previous salary after 59 appearances, 83.1 IP, 9 holds, 0 saves and a 2.48 ERA. Keegan Akin (2024, $650k raise) came from the exact same $825k salary and made 66 appearances with 78.2 IP, 6 holds, 1 save and a 3.32 ERA. All three pitched very similar bulk in similar middle-relief roles, with Ramirez fitting cleanly between Herget and Akin in the overall platform-year profile. I split their raises down the middle at $675K, bringing Ramirez to a $1.5M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Ramirez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ONEIL CRUZ (4.110): $5,800,000 ($2.5M raise)

The Case: Cruz totaled 419 PA with 20 HR, 30 SB and a 133 wRC+ while spending more than two months on the IL and playing center field.

Cedric Mullins (2023, $2.225M raise) provides the floor after totaling 455 PA with 15 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB and a 98 wRC+ in his platform year. Cruz has clear power, speed and quality advantages over Mullins despite the platform-year bulk disadvantage.

Thairo Estrada (2023, $2.45M raise) is the best placement comparison after totaling 530 PA with 14 HR, 23 SB and a 100 wRC+. Cruz again has the power, speed and quality advantages, while Estrada owns the qualifying-level bulk advantage. Cruz’s representatives can argue aggressively against qualified players with larger PA totals but similar or weaker counting stats, and there is very little exposure at or below Mullins.

I project a $2.5M raise, bringing Cruz to $5.8M.

Tender Prediction: Cruz will be tendered a contract, I would expect his representatives to be aggressive here which could lead to a hearing. Tender.

CARMEN MLODZINSKI (3.081): $1,825,000

The Case: Mlodzinski is a rare SP/RP hybrid: 308.2 career IP, a 3.53 ERA and 29 starts across 146 games, with 12 starts in both his platform year and PY-1; his workload has increased yearly, he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA every season, his final nine platform-year outings came in relief, and his career bullpen work includes 3 saves and 22 holds.

Austin Gomber (2022, $1.65M salary) is the role floor at an extrapolated 393.2 career IP with a 4.30 ERA and 124.2 platform-year IP with a 5.56 ERA; Mlodzinski’s quality and consistency should push him higher. Seth Lugo (2019, $2.0M salary) is the ceiling at 346.2 career IP with a 3.27 ERA and 31 starts, despite making zero platform-year starts. Mlodzinski fits between the two, leading to a $1.825M projection.

Tender Prediction: Mlodzinski will be tendered a contract. This is a weird case that could end up in a hearing with the two sides arguing completely different markets. The relief-pitcher market would be less favorable for Mlodzinski because he does not have a large career SV+HLD total, while the starting-pitcher market is more favorable because he has made 12 starts in back-to-back seasons.

There are no great comparisons in either market, so I would not be surprised at all to see this go to a hearing. I would still give the edge to Mlodzinski remaining more tied to the starting-pitcher market than the relief market. Tender.

JARED TRIOLO (3.071): $1,957,500

The Case: Triolo enters arbitration as a light-hitting utility player who has never posted a qualifying season, accumulating 1,393 career PA with 22 HR and an 82 career wRC+.

Alek Thomas (2025, $1.9625M salary) entered with slightly more career bulk but a weaker 74 career wRC+, while Mike Tauchman (2023, $1.95M salary) reached essentially the same salary with slightly less career bulk but a stronger 93 career wRC+. Both Thomas and Tauchman also carry a slight career-power advantage over Triolo. Triolo fits directly between the two cases, and I project a $1.9575M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Triolo should be tendered a contract. His versatility is important to Pittsburgh, and he is still optionable, which makes the tender less risky even if the bat does not perform. Tender.

ENDY RODRIGUEZ (3.044): $950,000

The Case: Rodriguez enters arbitration with an injury-filled career, amassing only 420 career PA with an 86 wRC+, including just 159 PA in his platform year, and he enters the offseason with a major hip injury.

Garrett Mitchell (2025, $950k salary) was a very similar case last year, entering arbitration with just 443 career PA, including only 78 PA in his platform year, while also dealing with a major shoulder injury. There is no reason to create separation between the two cases. I project Rodriguez at a $950k total salary.

Tender Prediction: If Endy Rodriguez has no believers on this planet, I am no longer on Earth. The severity of this injury makes the decision a tough one for Pittsburgh, which operates with thin margins, and tendering a player who may miss the entire season can be difficult.

Despite all of that, I personally think Rodriguez can become one of the best hitters against RHP in baseball if he stays healthy, and he showed flashes of that this season with a 147 wRC+ in 131 PA against RHP. I would not let Rodriguez walk out the door. I expect the Pirates to pursue a pre-tender deal and keep Rodriguez a Pirate. Pre-Tender.

HENRY DAVIS (3.039): $2,075,000

The Case: Davis enters into arbitration coming off a season with career highs in PA’s with 298 and HR’s with 10. Over Davis’ career, he’s posted a 55 wRC+ across just 958 PA’s with 25 total HR’s.

He has never been the starter on his club which should put him behind Freddy Fermin (2025, $2.1M salary). Fermin’s the obvious comp because he entered arbitration with 957 PA’s, 1 shy of Davis, he’s posted better quality with a 90 career wRC+ and posted multiple 300+ PA seasons, something Davis has never done. Fermin is also one of the game’s best defenders.

There are a few older comps below Fermin at $2.05M, Davis has more bulk with similar run production stats as them so he slots in at $2.075M.

Tender Prediction: With the emergence of Rafael Flores, Davis is in a clear backup role and a salary near $2M could be a lot for a team operating at Pittsburgh’s payroll level.

With no obvious internal candidate, I still expect the Pirates to keep Davis, but I could see them being aggressive in a below-market pre-tender deal or pushing the case to a hearing to try to get a lower number and keep the salary from becoming fully guaranteed while they bring in competition during spring training through minor-league free agency. Pre-Tender.

NICK GONZALES (3.018): $2,825,000

The Case: Gonzales enters arbitration coming off his career-best season, which was also his lone qualifying season. He is an infielder with limited power and enters with 1,531 career PA, 20 career HR and a 94 career wRC+, including a career-best 111 wRC+ in his platform year.

Brendan Donovan (2024, $2.85M salary) is the best historical ceiling as another low-power infielder with nearly identical career bulk at 1,491 PA and 30 HR who also had his career-best season in his platform year. Donovan’s 120 career wRC+ creates a major quality advantage and makes his salary an impassable ceiling for Gonzales.

Brendan Rodgers (2022, $2.7M salary) provides the floor as another low-power player whose lone qualifying season came in his platform year, but Rodgers entered with only 1,132 career PA after extrapolating 2020 and an 83 career wRC+, leaving Gonzales with clear bulk and quality advantages.

Brayan Rocchio (2026, $2.75M proj. salary) is the best current-class comparison with nearly identical career bulk and the same one-qualifying-season profile, but Gonzales’ 94 career wRC+ and 111 platform-year wRC+ give him the quality advantage. Gonzales should fit just below Donovan and just ahead of Rocchio, and I project a $2.825M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Gonzales will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JARED JONES (3.000): $2,100,000

The Case: Jones enters arbitration with an injury-filled career but solid quality, amassing a 3.95 ERA across 43 career games, all starts, totaling 223.1 IP. Jones missed the entire 2025 season with injury but finished his platform year healthy and threw 101.2 IP with a 3.72 ERA.

Luis Gil (2025, $2.1625M salary) and Michael Kopech (2022, $2.05M salary) represent the best recent comparisons with severe injury histories who also pitched to solid quality. Gil, like Jones, accumulated more than 300 days on the IL and missed his entire PY-2 season.

Gil entered arbitration with 242 career IP and a 3.50 ERA across 47 games, all starts, but managed only 57 IP in his platform year, albeit with a 3.32 ERA. Gil also carried Rookie of the Year recognition from an earlier season. That award recognition, along with Gil’s slight career-bulk and quality advantages, should keep Jones below him.

Kopech provides the floor after missing two full seasons and entering arbitration with only 203 career IP, including 119.1 IP in his platform year, with a 3.64 career ERA. While Kopech has some platform-year advantages, he worked as a reliever in PY-1 and had made only 33 career starts entering arbitration. Jones’ superior starter length and consistency should keep him slightly above Kopech. That places Jones cleanly between the two and leads to a projection of a $2.1M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Jones will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

PAUL SKENES (3.000): $7,000,000

The Case: Skenes enters arbitration as a Cy Young winner, Rookie of the Year and 3x All-Star, with two separate seasons posting a sub-2.00 ERA before regressing in his platform year to a 3.82 ERA across 174.1 IP. In addition to winning the Cy Young in 2025, he finished third in voting in 2024 as a rookie. In total, Skenes enters arbitration with 495 career IP, a 2.62 ERA across 87 starts and 48 quality starts.

Corbin Burnes (2021, $6.5M salary) and Shane Bieber (2021, $6.0M salary) are the two obvious Cy Young-winning references. Burnes established the top of that market because he won the Cy Young in his platform year after also finishing sixth in voting the year before.

Because of the shortened 2020 season, Burnes had effectively amassed only 313.2 career IP with a 3.39 ERA across 41 starts and 102 games, having begun his career in the bullpen. Bieber actually entered with a stronger statistical resume in the same class, but he fell below Burnes because his Cy Young came in PY-1 during the shortened 2020 season and he threw only 96.2 IP in his platform year.

That incomplete platform season makes Bieber much less useful as a direct placement point. Skenes compares extremely favorably to Burnes in both career bulk and quality even when Burnes’ 2020 season is extrapolated, while Skenes also has the major career-consistency advantage and a better finish in his pre-Cy Young season. Burnes therefore represents the floor for Skenes’ case.

The only meaningful club argument preventing severe separation is that Burnes won the Cy Young in his platform year while Skenes enters off a regression season.

Even with that distinction, Skenes has enough career bulk, quality and award history to become the first player in this market to reach a salary beginning with a seven. I project Skenes at a $7.0M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Skenes will be tendered a contract. His representatives will fully understand the relationship between Pirates ownership and the fan base and can leverage that dynamic in negotiations with an extremely aggressive approach and no obvious ceiling, trying to force Pittsburgh into a high settlement knowing the club will not want to go to a hearing with its franchise star.

That could lead to a salary above the projection, but Burnes winning the Cy Young in his platform year paired with Skenes’ platform-year regression should be just enough to prevent Skenes’ representatives from pushing the case into a completely unprecedented range. Tender.

SPENCER HORWITZ (2.152): $2,100,000

The Case: Horwitz enters arbitration without ever posting a qualifying season, but he has produced solid offensive quality with a 109 career wRC+ and 34 HR across 1,287 career PA.

Ramón Urías (2023, $2.1M salary) similarly entered arbitration without a qualifying season, but with a 106 career wRC+ across 1,210 PA after extrapolating the shortened 2020 season, along with 30 career HR. The comparison gets even stronger in the platform year, as both Horwitz and Urías posted a 98 wRC+. Their career bulk, power and offensive quality are extremely similar, and neither established a qualifying-season advantage before arbitration. Horwitz fits directly with Urías, and I project the same $2.1M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Horwitz will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.