Seattle Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo throws during a game against the Boston Red Sox on June 18 at T-Mobile Park. Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Popular Baseball Website Has Somewhat Shocking Playoff Odds For Seattle Mariners

Originally posted on Seattle Mariners on SI
By Teren Kowatsch | Last updated Jun 19, 2025 6:00 PM ET

The Seattle Mariners will soon embark on the most daunting stretch of the season to this point.

The Mariners will begin the first of 17-straight games with a matchup against the Chicago Cubs at 11:20 a.m. PT on Friday. The M's have lost four of their last five series, but earned a valuable sweep against the Cleveland Guardians in their recent six-game homestand and finished 4-2 overall at home.

Even with Seattle's recent inconsistencies and the herculean stretch in front of it, the club still has favorable odds to make the postseason according to projections from a top baseball site.

According to a post on "X" from Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) the Mariners have the sixth-best odds in the American League to make the playoffs at 50.9% according to FanGraphs. If the odds match the final playoff standings, Seattle would make the postseason as the final Wild Card team.

MLB Playoff Odds pic.twitter.com/rP3SotvGRg
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 19, 2025

The teams ahead of Seattle in the playoff odds are the Detroit Tigers (97.6%), New York Yankees (93.9%), Houston Astros (89.6%), Toronto Blue Jays (63.2%) and Tampa Bay Rays (59.8%). What's shocking is how much larger the Mariners' playoff odds are compared to the teams below them.

After Seattle, the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians have the best playoffs odds in the AL. The Twins have a 32.5% chance at making the postseason and the Guardians are at 31.9%.

As of Thursday, Seattle has a 37-36 record on the season and is half a game out of the final Wild Card spot.

If the Mariners get through the 17-game stretch with a winning record, they could build some necessary room and carve out a foothold in the crowded AL playoff picture.

This article first appeared on Seattle Mariners on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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