Predicting which top free agents the Braves will sign

MLB free agency is underway, and there are a couple of reasons to expect a lot of movement from the Braves over the next month.

Alex Anthopoulos is typically the type of general manager who strikes fast. The Braves make most of their free agent additions before December, and now they have even more reason to do so with the lockout set to begin December 1st. We should hopefully see moves fairly quickly, so let’s take a look at who national media pundits are predicting the Braves to land in free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents

MLB Trade Rumors just dropped its annual list of the top 50 free agents, along with contract projections and predictions for where each one lands. Here’s who they had linked to the Braves.

• Sonny Gray (2 years, $55 million) — 1 writer
• Tyler Mahle (3 years, $54 million) — 2 writers
• Clay Holmes (3 years, $45 million) — 1 writer
• Mauricio Dubon (2 years, $18 million) — 3 writers
• Raisel Iglesias (1 year, $17 million) — 1 writer

The writers over at MLB Trade Rumors don’t expect the Braves to be lavish spenders in free agency, and I can’t say I blame them. Atlanta already has so much money tied up in its core group that it’s really difficult to pony up for some of the top guys, especially with several holes to fill.

The consensus is they expect the Braves to land a mid-tier starting pitcher, maybe two. Tyler Mahle coming back makes a lot of sense. Sonny Gray has been linked to Atlanta for years, even if it’s never come to fruition, and Clay Holmes has ties to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner from their time together with the Mets.

All three writers agree on Mauricio Dubon returning to Atlanta. At that price point, it would be a no-brainer — and because of Dubon’s defensive versatility, the Braves could still look to upgrade shortstop through trade if the opportunity presents itself.

Only one writer predicted Iglesias to return, and I’d agree it’s a toss-up if he’s set to command $17 million. He’s getting up there in age, struggled to close out last season, and the Braves already have an experienced closer on the roster in Robert Suarez. If they don’t retain Iglesias, though, they’ll be in the market for another high-leverage reliever.

Jim Bowden names Braves “best fits” for four free agents

For The Athletic, Bowden also ranked the top 40 free agents in this year’s class along with best fits for each. Of them, he connected four players to the Braves.

• Mauricio Dubon
• Randy Arozarena
• Raisel Iglesias
• Hiromi Itoh

David Schoenfield of ESPN also named the Braves a “best fit” for Arozarena, and the match could not be more obvious.

Left field is one of the few areas in the lineup where Atlanta can stand to upgrade significantly. It’s been a sore spot since the 2021 season, with a long line of failed attempts to fix it. Signing Arozarena would be the first time the Braves really spent money on the position. He’s expected to command around $100 million this winter, coming off a career year in which he recorded nearly 6.0 WAR, mashing 26 home runs with an .865 OPS.

Arozarena also has a track record of performing in October. Over 45 postseason games, he has 12 home runs to go along with a .946 OPS. Considering how much of the Braves’ lineup has no-showed in the playoffs over the years, adding a guy with that kind of experience when it matters most is awfully appealing.

The issue with Arozarena is that he’ll be 32 next season. He’s likely in line for at least a four-year deal, and that’s quite a commitment for a player his age — something the Braves have been hesitant to take on in the past.

Maybe that changes out of sheer desperation. It’s evident what the Braves have tried at the position hasn’t worked, but Anthopoulos hasn’t shown he’s a general manager who changes his approach very often, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on Arozarena or any of the top outfield targets, who are all around the same age.

SportsTalk ATL’s Braves Free Agency Predictions

• Braves sign Trevor Rogers (4 years, $100 million)
• Braves sign Mauricio Dubon (2 years, $20 million)
• Braves sign Michael Soroka (2 years, $25 million)

The Braves probably won’t get all of their work done in free agency, with most of the focus on starting pitching — the strongest part of this year’s class.

I have them going a little bigger than most on that front. They just have so many questions in the rotation, and this very well could be Chris Sale’s final year in Atlanta. They need to find another big arm to pair with him, one that can also stabilize the group once Sale is no longer around.

Trevor Rogers at around $25 million AAV over four years is far from an absurd price. He’ll be 29 next season and has recorded 7.5 WAR with a 3.16 ERA and 3.20 FIP since the start of the 2025 campaign.

I also have the Braves doubling down with a Michael Soroka reunion. His strikeout and walk numbers this season with the Diamondbacks were the best of his career, and he’ll be just 29 next season as well. Maybe it’s the nostalgia in me, but at this price point, there’s not much that could go wrong.

By doubling down on starting pitching, the Braves wouldn’t have to force anything with Didier Fuentes. They rightfully want to see what he can do in the rotation, but for his arm’s sake, it’s best to ease him into that role next season. He’s not someone they should expect 150-plus innings from right away.

The only other free agent I predict the Braves signing is Mauricio Dubon. At the numbers I’ve seen him projected at, I don’t see why Atlanta would let him walk. He’s the best shortstop available on the open market by far, and because he can play everywhere defensively, he doesn’t stop the Braves from pursuing a bigger upgrade at the position. If all it’s going to take is $20 million over two years, that deal should be signed today.