
If the Boston Red Sox make a blockbuster trade this winter, there seems to be about a 99% chance that trade involves an outfielder.
Boston enters the offseason with four talented outfielders worthy of everyday playing time -- Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony. Of the four, Anthony is the only true untouchable, but the consensus seems to be that one of the other corner guys (Duran and Abreu) are the likeliest to move.
But the idea of a trade does not guarantee a trade actually takes place. So at this early phase of the offseason, it can be helpful to track what the insiders with knowledge of the team's thought process believe will play out.
On Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive predicted that the Red Sox would move one of those outfielders, but also that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow would use the lack of a logjam in the designated hitter role to pursue a big bat, in the mold of former Boston slugger Kyle Schwarber.
"Breslow is going to listen on Abreu, Duran and Rafaela and look to make a big-league trade involving one of them that either fetches a pitcher or an impact bat in an area of need. As he demonstrated over the summer, that doesn’t mean such a deal is guaranteed to happen. There’s a high bar to move those guys," Cotillo wrote.
"The prediction here is that the Red Sox do move an outfielder, potentially Duran, in a trade for pitching, finding the perfect deal they’ve been pining for. ... From there, Breslow spends big on a big bat at DH, with Schwarber as the top candidate. Yoshida is playing elsewhere on Opening Day."
Schwarber returning to Boston would have almost universal approval with the fan base, but it's hard to feel confident about Boston's ability to pry him from the Philadelphia Phillies' grasp. That said, there are other big bats out there who could fill a first base/DH role, such as Eugenio Suárez or Pete Alonso.
It's important to note, however, that the Red Sox were without Anthony in the playoffs and felt the need to start righty Nate Eaton in right field over Abreu against lefties. Having too much depth isn't always a curse.
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