Reeling D-backs Try Again vs Nationals Saturday Night Behind Pfaadt

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in free fall. Friday night they lost another close game, this one a high scoring, 9-7 affair with the Washington Nationals. Misplays on defense by Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. led to runs and Merrill Kelly had a rare off night, lasting just five innings, giving up six runs, four earned.

The two teams will be back at it again on Saturday evening, with a later than usual first pitch time of 7:10 MST. The D-backs and Nationals both have the same record at 27-30 and are 5.0 games back of the Cardinals and Giants in the National League Wild Card race. With a 3-1 advantage in the season series, the Nationals have clinched at least a tie in the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Mike Soroka gets the start for the Nationals. He has a 1-3 record with a 5.61 ERA in five starts. The former Atlanta Brave was a very promising young pitcher back in 2019. As a 21-year-old he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in the Cy Young.

Since then injuries have wreaked havoc on his career. He twice tore his achilles tendon, and has dealt with numerous arm and shoulder injuries. He missed over two full seasons and has made just 23 starts since 2020.

But the Nationals still took a chance, signing him to a one year, $9 million contract. Despite all the injuries, Soroka is throwing harder than ever, averaging 94 MPH on both his four seam and sinker. The slurve is his best pitch, and he uses it a lot, 36% of the time. He'll also mix in a change up against lefties.

Despite the 5.61 ERA, his xERA is two full runs better at 3.62, indicating he's run into some bad luck. He took a loss his last time out despite throwing a quality start against the Giants, lasting six innings and giving up three runs.

Brandon Pfaadt is 7-3 with a 3.90 ERA. He took a no-decision in his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals, going 5.2 innings and giving up three runs. Pfaadt faced the Nationals on April 4 and picked up a win despite giving up four runs in six innings.

Pfaadt has reversed an early career trend. Whereas he'd posted much better peripherals than his ERA in 2023-24, this year metrics such as xERA (6.37) and FIP (4.92) suggest a pitcher who has had a good deal of luck on his side.

More than half the balls hit in play against him are classified as "hard hit", or over 95 MPH exit velocity. That is in just the fifth percentile, meaning 95% of the pitchers in the league are better at inducing softer contact than Pfaadt. Not surprisingly, he has allowed 12 homers and has a 1.71 HR/9 ratio.

He's had success despite all that. He has limited walks, issuing just 15 in 62.2 innings, and the pitch-to-contact strategy he's used to try to get deeper into games has worked, so far. The only pitch that has induced relatively soft contact is the changeup, and he also has a 28% whiff rate on the pitch. It's been an increasingly effective weapon as teams have stacked left-hand batters against him.

Lineups

Article will be updated with lineup analysis later in the day once available

Bullpens

The D-backs did not use either of Shelby Miller or Justin Martinez on Friday night and both should be available to pitch late in a close game.

The Nationals used their closer Kyle Finnegan on Friday night. It was his second straight game pitched and he needed 22 pitches to lock down the save. He will likely be unavailable Saturday and perhaps even Sunday.