Reexamining the Giants’ Patrick Bailey Trade

When Giants fans got a notification from Jeff Passan on May 9 this year, they couldn’t believe what they were reading. Their “catcher of the future” had just been traded to the Cleveland Guardians for an unranked prospect and a late first-round pick.

Sure, it had been an abysmal start to the season, and ideas of the San Francisco Giants dumping their big contracts had been floated, but nobody thought their cost-controlled, back-to-back Gold Glove-winning backstop was on the table.

Frankly, a certain portion of the Bay Area fanbase was surprised there was even a market for Patrick Bailey in the first place. Either way, Buster Posey made it clear that he was comfortable making this deal thanks to a duo of young backstops who had recently debuted for the orange and black: Daniel Susac and Jesus Rodriguez.

With Drew Cavanaugh also in the Giants’ catching room, let’s break down how this trade looks following the conclusion of the 2026 campaign and heading into the winter.

Bailey’s Journey

Coming into 2026, there was actually a bit of confidence in Bailey finally putting it together offensively. Yes, he’s been one of, if not the, best defenders in the sport over the past few seasons, but he was widely known for being one of the worst hitters in the sport as well.

Typically, Bailey would start the year relatively well before falling off an absolute cliff to close the season. His 2025 campaign, however, marked the first time in his career that he ended the year on a strong note. In September, he slashed .288/.321/.493 with a 126 wRC+.

This had many around the Giants organization hopeful that something had finally clicked at the plate.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. In 89 plate appearances before the trade, Bailey was hitting just .146 with a 15 wRC+. Numbers like that make you understand why Posey and company were ready to move on.

It should be noted, however, that if Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and a few of the Giants’ other big names had gotten off to better starts, there’s a chance Bailey would still be in the orange and black.

Production as a Guardian

While he still wasn’t a great hitter, Bailey put together his best stretch as a big-leaguer since making his way to Cleveland. He launched nine home runs while posting a .683 OPS and 90 wRC+ — just 10 points below league average.

As a surprise to nobody, Bailey remained an elite defender behind the plate with Cleveland. He accumulated eight Defensive Runs Saved and six Fielding Run Value over the course of the 2026 campaign.

Naturally, he had to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly, and it wouldn’t surprise anybody if he returned to Gold Glove status in 2027.

The Replacement Plan

At the time of the deal, Posey was extremely vocal about his confidence in the young backstops already in the Giants’ organization.

“It’s more the confidence that we have in Jesus Rodriguez and Daniel Susac and the strides they’ve made defensively, both of them are swinging the bat well”

– Buster Posey

Daniel Susac

Susac specifically looked like the steal of the Rule 5 Draft at the time, posting a 1.152 OPS and 223 wRC+. The only problem was that it came in an extremely small sample — just 24 plate appearances.

While his bat definitely slowed down (59 wRC+ for the rest of the season), the biggest issue was the fact that he couldn’t stay on the field. From May 9 through the end of the year, he appeared in just 42 games.

The good news? The drop-off in defense following Bailey’s departure wasn’t as dramatic as many had expected. The rookie backstop ranked tied for fourth in the league in Caught Stealing Above Average with four, as well as fourth in Catcher Framing Runs with six (Baseball Savant).

As of now, Susac will most likely be the club’s starting catcher heading into the 2027 campaign.

Jesus Rodriguez

Rodriguez was a prospect the Giants absolutely loved when he joined the organization in the Camilo Doval trade at the 2025 trade deadline. His profile was almost the exact opposite of Bailey’s — his defense was questionable, but he hit for a high average at every stop in the minor leagues.

Similar to Susac, Rodriguez’s numbers were impressive, but came in an extremely small sample at the time of the trade. In just 12 plate appearances, Rodriguez slashed .455/.500/.727 with a 243 wRC+.

He had a similar issue to his catching counterpart in that he was rarely available throughout the remainder of the season. He spent some time in Triple-A but appeared in only 18 games the rest of the way due to a handful of injuries.

A New Option

Drew Cavanaugh was nowhere near the Giants’ radar heading into 2026, but given how thin their catching room was, he found his way to the big leagues. The left-handed-hitting backstop was coming off a 136 wRC+ across four levels in 2025 and started 2026 with a 165 wRC+ between Double-A and Triple-A.

His defense was well ahead of Rodriguez’s but slightly behind Susac’s at the time of his promotion. At the plate, his first cup of coffee in the big leagues was a pretty interesting showing.

He got on base at a .315 clip but slugged just .292 over 166 plate appearances. Even for a guy who wasn’t known for launching balls as a prospect, he definitely has more power than he displayed over the final few weeks of the season.

As things currently stand, he’ll most likely be the other half of a platoon with Susac to open the 2027 season.

The Return and Final Thoughts

No. 29 Pick – LHP Carson Bolemon

LHP Matt Wilkinson – 27.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 6.51 K/9, 1.63 BB/9, 0.3 fWAR in MLB

With Carson Bolemon being a prep arm, it will be a handful of years before we can determine who won this trade. For Buster Posey, though, it must be slightly eerie that almost immediately after Bailey left the organization, he turned into the hitter the Giants had been looking for over the last couple of years.

We also don’t necessarily know what Susac, Rodriguez, and Cavanaugh are yet, given the limited sample we saw from all three in 2026. If Patrick Bailey continues the offensive improvements he showed in Cleveland while San Francisco’s young replacements struggle, this trade will go down as another questionable decision under the Posey regime.

Either way, this trade is a perfect example of just how unafraid the Giants’ president is to swing an early deal, even if it may not go over well with Bay Area fans.