Resetting Cubs Postseason Outlook After Series Vs. Brewers

As it stands, the Chicago Cubs have played themselves into postseason position.

And all things considered, with the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers entering this past series having suffered just their first loss of August on Sunday (which ended their 14-game winning streak), winning the five-game set is a big positive.

Taking three-straight games between Tuesday and Wednesday had the vibes around Wrigleyville as high as they’ve been in weeks. Dropping Thursday’s series finale, 4-1, brought those vibes back down a bit, though.

The loss was disappointing in how it happened.

Starting pitching again gave the Cubs a chance to win. Shota Imanaga rebounded from a second-inning two-run homer to retire 16 of the last 18 batters he faced.

The offense had a number of opportunities to support him, loading the bases in the second and fifth, getting the leadoff hitter on base in each of the final five frames and drawing eight walks (including five from Brewers starter Quinn Priester).

But as has seemingly been the case for a while now, the Cubs couldn’t get the big hit in the big spots. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s sacrifice fly in the fifth inning drove in their only run. They went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on base.

The Cubs’ offense didn’t necessarily find its form during this series overall, either. Yes, they won three of five, but they averaged only three runs per game during the five-game set. The struggles at the top of the order popped up again Thursday.

Though each of the top four hitters in the lineup (Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong) drew a walk, they combined to go 1-for-14 on the day. Essentially everyone outside of Matt Shaw has contributed to the lineup’s lackluster performance in the second half, but those four have been the biggest examples of the offense’s regression.

Still, the Cubs now embark on a nine-game road trip 18 games above .500 with a 73-55 record. That’s tied for the third-best record in the National League and tied for the fifth-best in Major League Baseball.

They have a 5 1/2 game cushion in the NL Wild Card race (and remain a game up on the San Diego Padres for the top spot). As of Thursday night, FanGraphs still gave them 98.6 percent shot to make the playoffs.

At this point, the Cubs’ best chance to get back to the postseason seems to be the wild card. A ‘W’ Thursday would’ve brought their deficit in the NL Central down to five games, but the loss raised it back to seven. So, despite winning the series, they only trimmed the Brewers’ lead by one game with 34 left to play.

Chasing down a team who’s been as hot as the Brewers over nearly three months feels like a steep climb. FanGraphs also gave the MLB leaders a 91.4 percent chance to win the division.

It’s not an insurmountable lead, of course. Odds are only odds at the end of the day. In 2023, FanGraphs gave the Cubs over a 92 percent chance to make the postseason on FanGraphs on Sept. 6 (and you know how that ended).

Taking three of five this week means the Cubs won the season series and own the potential tiebreaker. Plus, the Brewers themselves turned a four-game deficit on July 6 into a three-game lead on Aug. 4 — a seven-game swing in the standings, like the Cubs would need moving forward — in just 22 games.

However, that included an 18-4 record over that stretch. The Cubs went 11-11 at the same time. They played well this week, but they haven’t recently shown they have that standings-flipping run in them. There’s no guarantee the Brewers would play .500 ball if the Cubs go on a run, either.

All that is to say, the Cubs would need plenty of help to take the NL Central crown. For their part, the big bats need to start producing on a consistent basis. That would certainly go a long way to help stack some wins.

But it won’t just be up to the team itself. With no more opportunities to play the division leaders, the Cubs will need other teams to cool the Brewers down to have a shot at their first NL Central title in five years (eight if you only count full-season titles).

That’s still a lot for the Cubs to rely on outside of their control. It remains to be seen if that can come to fruition over the next 34 games.

For now, at least they currently own the top wild card spot. They’re also five games up on the New York Mets (who they play three more times at Wrigley Field) and 5 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds (who they play four times in their final road series of the year).

Despite an underwhelming last couple of months (one game above .500 after June 17), the Cubs are still in playoff position. Regardless of if it’s winning the division or securing a wild card spot, they just need to punch their postseason ticket. Get there, and you never know what might happen.