San Diego Padres Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

San Diego Padres Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 42

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 12

OPTIONS: King (Player, $28M), Pivetta (Club, $14M), Hart (Club, $2.5M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 1; Tucker Musgrove

GAVIN SHEETS (5.076): $6,300,000 ($1.8M raise)

The Case: Sheets had 419 PA, 17 HR and 48 RBI to the tune of a 102 wRC+ in his platform season.

Gio Urshela (2021, $1.9M raise) provides a strong comparison after 442 PA, 14 HR and 49 RBI to the tune of a 97 wRC+. Both players also spent similar time on the IL. Sheets holds advantages in the power counting stat and rate stats, but Urshela has the bulk advantage by PA which gives him the slight edge. Sheets should finish slightly below Urshela’s raise. I project a $1.8M raise resulting in a $6.3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Sheets will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

LUIS CAMPUSANO (4.003): $1,600,000 ($700k raise)

The Case: Campusano enters Arb-3 coming off a strong offensive platform season, totaling 248 PA with 8 HR and a 127 wRC+ while providing solid defense behind the plate.

Kyle Higashioka (2023, $717.5K raise) and José Trevino (2023, $695K raise) provide the best historical range for Campusano’s case. Higashioka’s elite defense gives him the advantage at the top of the group and should keep Campusano from reaching his raise. Campusano’s defensive value is more comparable to Trevino, but Campusano holds a significant offensive advantage, particularly with his 127 wRC+, which should allow him to finish ahead of Trevino’s raise. Campusano slots directly between the two comparisons at a $700K raise, resulting in a $1.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Campusano will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

MASON MILLER (3.166): $7,800,000 ($3.8M raise)

The Case: Miller was one of the most dominant closers in baseball and is currently the heavy favorite to win the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award. He finished with 38 saves, a 1.67 ERA and 70 IP.

Blake Treinen (2018, $4.25M raise) provides the historical ceiling after posting a historic 0.78 ERA over 80.1 IP with 38 saves. Treinen did not win Reliever of the Year that season, but his actual platform season was still significantly better than Miller’s and Miller should not get all the way to Treinen’s raise.

Jordan Romano (2023, $3.2125M raise), Jhoan Duran (2025, $3.375M raise) and Devin Williams (2023, $3.65M raise) are more comparable salary cases with all three coming from an Arb-1 salary within $600K of Miller. Miller recorded more saves and fewer blown saves than all three, with Williams the only player in the group holding an ERA advantage.

Williams also won NL Reliever of the Year in his platform season. Miller clearly belongs at the top of this group but still below Treinen’s $4.25M raise.

Bryan Baker is also a current-class comparison that could add a twist to the case. Baker’s 41-save season is more valuable on paper in some traditional arbitration categories, but he is coming from a dramatically lower starting salary while Miller has the stardom, award recognition and negotiating leverage that could push his raise higher.

I project Miller for a $3.8M raise resulting in a $7.8M total salary, which would be the highest Arb-2 RP total salary in the recent market.

Tender Prediction: Miller will be tendered a contract. Miller’s representatives should be ultra aggressive here and may also be able to use Baker to leapfrog higher than the lookback comps suggest. A brand-new ownership group will not want to take Miller to a hearing. Tender.

FREDDY FERMIN (3.165): $2,600,000 ($500k raise)

The Case: Fermin totaled 265 PA with 4 HR and a 68 wRC+ in his platform season, but remains one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.

Caleb Joseph (2017, $550k raise), Chris Herrmann (2017, $362.5k raise), and Reese McGuire (2023, $275k raise) provide the relevant historical range. Fermin’s offensive production belongs in the same general group, but his elite defense separates him from the lower-end comparisons and pushes him toward the top of the range. Joseph provides the ceiling at a $550k raise, and Fermin should finish just below that figure. I project a $500k raise resulting in a $2.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Fermin will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BRYAN HOEING (3.133): $820,000

The Case: Bryan Hoeing enters the Arb-1 RP market after missing all of 2026 with injury. His career totals coming in are 145 IP to a 3.38 ERA / 3.01 FIP but only 5 career HLDs and a 0.84 gmLI, showing he’s been used mostly in low-leverage, earlier innings.

Despite the good quality, this market is consistent: if you didn’t pitch at all in the platform year and you don’t have extreme outlier career stats in saves, you get a salary just $20K-$30K above the league minimum. Andrew Nardi (2025, $800k salary) missed his entire platform season and, despite 121.2 career IP and 33 HLDs, received a salary just above the league minimum.

Penn Murfee (2024, $780k salary) and Mason Thompson (2024, $770k salary) are further examples of this. Hoeing fits into this group and projects for an Arb-1 salary of $820k.

Tender Prediction: Hoeing will be tendered a contract, assuming there are no major medical red flags. Even so, he’s not getting much more than the league minimum. Tender.

JP SEARS (3.107): $2,925,000 ($175,000 raise)

The Case: Sears finished the season on option after spending 145 days on optional assignment and only making 8 MLB appearances.

Ryan Feltner (2025, $175k raise) is the only recent tendered starter with fewer than 8 games and significant option time, coming from a salary within roughly $600k and posting a mid-4 ERA.

Luis Gil (2026, $175k proj. raise) provides an almost identical current-class comparison with 144 option days and 8 games and should receive same raise. I project Sears for the same $175k raise resulting in a $2.925M total salary.

Tender Prediction: On paper, this probably should be a non-tender, but my gut says they work out some sort of pre-tender deal at a similar or slightly lower salary than this past year. San Diego does not have enough pitching depth to let Sears walk even if he doesn’t make the roster. The high salary should push him through waivers and keep him in the organization as non-roster depth. Pre-Tender.

JEREMIAH ESTRADA (3.069): $1,530,000

The Case: Estrada enters arbitration with 181.1 career IP, 64 SV+HLD, a 3.47 career ERA and 1.22 gmLI. He finished his platform season off the active roster following an IL placement.

Matt Brash (2025, $1.55M salary) and Edwin Uceta (2025, $1.525M salary) provide the salary placement. Estrada’s career bulk, SV+HLD total, quality and leverage are comparable with this group. I project Estrada directly between the two at an Arb-1 salary of $1.53M.

Tender Prediction: Estrada will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JHONY BRITO (2.134): $800,000 (or league-minimum)

The Case: Jhony Brito enters this offseason with a projected MLS of 2.134, which I have slightly above the Super Two cutoff, making Brito arbitration-eligible. He had a dud of a platform year, spending over two months on the IL and over 100 days on option, including ending the year on option.

No player has spent that much time on option, finished the year on option and been tendered. If he is tendered, his salary would be the league minimum. I project Brito for $800k (or league-minimum).

Tender Prediction: Most teams would probably DFA/non-tender Brito, but the Padres have so many open roster spots and little SP depth that for this salary it’s probably worth it. I’d imagine they’d try to get a split-deal done pre-tender so they can pay him a lower salary on outright assignment. Pre-Tender