Should The Yankees Be Interested In Acquiring Sandy Alcantara?

What Would The Yankees Be Getting In Alcantara?

Alcantara is coming off a 5.36 ERA in his age-30 season, in which he pitched 174.2 innings and only had a 1.7 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement. The elephant in the room here is the fact that Alcantara underwent Tommy John Surgery in October of 2023 and ultimately missed the entire 2024 season.

The injury was unfortunate for many reasons. Alcantara won the National League CY Young award in 2022 and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball when he went down. This was also a season in which Alcantara led the league with 228.2 innings, had multiple complete games, and a lot of people speculated that it would lead to TJ surgery, unfortunately.

The 2025 season was easily his worst season in the majors, as he had his worst strikeout rate, walk rate, and he gave up the most damage contact in his career as well. His average fastball velocity was the lowest it’s been since 2020 at 97.4. Alcantara bounced back in the second half of the season with a 3.33 ERA compared to his 7.20 ERA in the first half. Batters also hit .275 off his most used pitcher, the sinker, and his only pitch with a good whiff rate was his changeup at 28%.

Alcantara can be given some grace since he’s coming off major surgery, was better in the second half, but you don’t want to overpay for him. You don’t want to pay the price for 2021-2023 Alcantara, while not knowing if he’ll ever get back to those heights. A 4.58 Expected ERA, .264 Expected Batting Average, 90.7 Average Exit Velocity, and 45% Hard-Hit rate just doesn’t sound enticing at face value.

What Would Be A Reasonable Package For Alcantara?

If the Yankees believe pitching coach Matt Blake can fix Alcantara and buy low on him, they have to make sure that they don’t get absolutely fleeced. The Marlins obviously hold him in high regard, so they would want at least a Top 100 prospect back. It wouldn’t be smart to just pencil in Alcantara as the potential ace of the Yankees, and he doesn’t have to be that. Fully healthy New York has Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Cam Schlittler. Tempered expectations would be like expecting him to be their third starter, who can potentially turn into a number two starter down the line.

A reasonable package would include either outfielder Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez, at least one pitching prospect, and a lottery ticket prospect. New York has a plethora of pitching prospects, including Elmer Rodriguez, Carlos Lagrange, Ben Hess, Bryce Cunningham, and Chase Hampton. Lagrange and Rodriguez are top 100 prospects, and Hess and Cunningham are enticing arms at the hierarchy of their system as well. Hampton is coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons, including 2025, in which he underwent TJ surgery in February. Jones is their fourth-ranked prospect and comes in at 99 in the Top 100 according to MLB Pipeline, as well.

Maybe the Yankees should deal some major league pitching talent, like 2024 Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. They could trade Will Warren, who led rookies in strikeouts with 171, to tie Gil for the second most by a rookie. If you’re New York, you don’t want to give up too much pitching depth to the point where it becomes a concern. Alcantara could go down, and you don’t really have a backup plan. This team is already without Cole, Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt to begin the season.

The End Of My New York Yankees Sandy Alcantara Rant

Just taking a look at Alcantara’s underlying metrics and expected stats, you can clearly see that there is a risk to acquiring him. He’s currently in year four of a five-year $56 million contract, including a club option for $21 million in the 2027-2028 season. If the Yankees believe in his stuff and the prospect capital isn’t egregious and something that they’re comfortable doing, then by all means, try to acquire him. If not, just stand pat and look elsewhere in the starting pitching market in either a trade or free agency signing.

With modern medicine, pitchers usually rebound well from TJ surgery and often pitch better afterward. There will be some struggle early on, and at least after an entire season, they start to regain their form and even add on to what they previously had.

It’s also important to note that batters in the second half only had a .635 On Base Plus Slugging Percentage against him. Alcantara saw his ground ball percentage and strikeout rate increase in the second half while also seeing his batting average against decrease. Whatever team he’s on next season hopes to see that version out of him that only allowed 31 earned runs in 83.2 second-half innings compared to 73 earned runs in his 91 first-half innings.

This would be a tough pill to swallow for Marlins fans as they’re coming off such a good season, blowing every one of their expectations out of the water. GM Peter Bendix is doing a fantastic job down there, and they have one of the most intriguing futures in the league, currently headlined by a really good pitching trio.

The big three include Alcantara, Eury Perez, and Edward Cabrera. Miami also has pitchers Thomas White, Robby Snelling, and Noble Meyer in the minor leagues as well. Alcantara means the world to their fanbase. The only thing that would make sense is an excellent package back, including an impact bat, and some enticing pitching prospects.