
A year removed from being the worst baseball team of all time, expectations weren’t too high for the Chicago White Sox heading into 2025. While the club improved by 19 games, it still wasn’t enough to avoid 100 losses for the third consecutive season.
Finishing 60-102 isn’t good, let’s get that out of the way early. However, there were signs that suggested a winning White Sox team may be here in the not-so-distant future.
Pythagorean record is a formula that tries to estimate a team’s record based on runs scored and runs allowed. This can be a good indication of when a team is due for a bit of positive regression, and the White Sox are in that camp.
With 647 runs scored and 742 runs allowed, the White Sox had a Pythagorean record of 71-91, 11 games better than their actual record.
While I’m not saying the White Sox will absolutely, without a doubt, 100% be 11 wins (or more…) better in 2026, it wouldn’t shock me. Let’s get into my reasoning.
I know it’s only been one season, but everything I’ve seen from Will Venable makes me comfortable saying: he’s the guy the White Sox have needed in the dugout for a while.
Young, former big leaguer, works well with his players, seems to get rave reviews. The only thing I would knock in his first year would be bullpen decisions, but with the group the White Sox had this year, I’m not holding that against him too much.
Will Venable on his mindset pic.twitter.com/aH6t6qPzY1
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) November 8, 2024
Venable has gotten the stamp of approval from just about every member of the organization, it seems. Veterans and rookies alike, they all said he was great. I obviously am not aware of what’s going on inside the clubhouse, but Venable seems to be able to motivate his guys and have them all play as a team rather than individuals.
There were bumps, no doubt, but I think Venable is a perfect blend of the “old school, fiery, everything-I-say-goes” manager and the “new school, laid back, analytics-make-all-my-decisions” manager. Which is great, because you want your manager to be able to communicate with players about their underlying numbers. On the other side, you also want them to play behind him every night and get fired up when he gets tossed.
#WhiteSox manager Will Venable has been ejected from today's game. pic.twitter.com/gd9iBGDUJF
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) June 15, 2025
Should Venable be the manager of the White Sox for the next decade? We’ll have to see, but his seat is nowhere near hot.
Whether it be Erick Fedde in 2024 or Adrian Houser in 2025, the White Sox have had success signing SPs that were cast to the curb by other organizations. Houser wasn’t signed until May, but he strung together 11 starts of 2.10 ERA baseball for the White Sox before being sent to the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline.
The point is, if the White Sox can get that type of production out of guys who weren’t wanted by any big league clubs, imagine what they could do with a guy who is one key away from being unlocked.
Director of Pitching Brian Bannister is widely thought of as one of the more analytically sound minds in the pitching world, and new pitching coach Zach Bove should work well under him.
Adrian Houser is putting the league on notice pic.twitter.com/IKsP9G1NbF
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) July 9, 2025
With how dreadful the bullpen has been, why not shuffle through some arms and see who sticks? Relievers are so volatile, and if the White Sox can get a bullpen arm to have a solid first 3 months, they can cash in.
The hitting side isn’t too far behind, honestly. Ryan Fuller has made adjustments to guys in-house (Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery) that have worked miracles. New hitting coach Derek Shomon seems to be on board with the same ideas as Fuller: make good swing decisions, and pull the ball in the air.
While you shouldn’t expect every signing the White Sox make to turn out incredible, I think there’s something to be said about buying low on guys in an attempt to boost their trade value or become a long-term piece. If one hits every year, that’s perfect.
The White Sox are slowly coming into the modern age with analytics. Being able to identify a player’s weaknesses, properly address them, and turn his career around is something we see the best analytical teams in the league do frequently. The White Sox aren’t there yet, but they’re closer than they were three years ago.
That’s it. That’s the takeaway.
The complete 180 Montgomery’s season did was truly remarkable. From posting a 79 wRC+ in one of the most hitter friendly environments in Triple-A, to being called up on July 4, leading the White Sox in fWAR (2.7), along with wRC+ (129), and finishing 5th in Rookie of the Year voting, Montgomery’s turn around was unreal.
Colson Montgomery spent time in Arizona getting back to being Colson…then showed the baseball world what he is capable of pic.twitter.com/4EVxSi311h
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) November 4, 2025
I can’t understate how much I want Montgomery to succeed in the big leagues. The guy deserves it more than anyone. He fought and battled his way through injuries, poor performance, and other things that would make a weaker man throw his hands up and quit. Not Montgomery.
He was pushed off shortstop from the day he was drafted, because he was “too big”. While that may be the case down the line, Montgomery put up 6 OAA at SS in just 60 games. Over a full 162, that would put him at 16 OAA, a number that only four MLB shortstops surpassed this season.
There are some areas that need to improve, no doubt. But the fact that Montgomery was able to hit 21 homers in a season that started so disastrously for him gives me hope that he’s going to work his tail off to improve in those areas.
Colson Montgomery just hit ball 452 feet.
— Dylan Barnas (@NotCease) August 10, 2025
That is the farthest HR a White Sox rookie LHH has hit in the Statcast era. pic.twitter.com/v0xcKyTlTY
Keep in mind, he’s only 23. In 2025, there were only 5 primary SSs with 250+ PAs that were younger than Montgomery. There is time to improve, and if he improves any more…watch out. Don’t believe me?
Since 2000, this is a complete list of every rookie SS to hit 20 HRs and post a wRC+ above 125:
End of list.
Pretty crazy right? What’s even crazier is, you can set the start date all the way back to 1871 (farthest FanGraphs goes back), and those are the only 4 players to ever do it.
You’ll also find in that picture: Montgomery played the fewest games in their rookie season of any player. So yes, that does mean Montgomery is the only rookie SS in MLB history to hit 20+ HRs while playing 83 or fewer games.
Not too shabby.
This is something not many people would expect on a team that lost 101 games the year prior, but such is the case. Whether those battles be Chase Meidroth and quickly-arriving Sam Antonacci for the 2B job, Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas for 3B, or Mead and Lenyn Sosa for 1B, there’s a fair amount to figure out before this team is truly competing again.
Maybe a trade happens and this is all figured out in the offseason. But as the roster currently stands, those are the positional battles I expect to see coming into spring training and early next season. I doubt a free agent acquisition would be one of those positions, but all of those names are versatile enough to play elsewhere.
I didn’t mention Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero solely because I think the White Sox are going to try and play them in the same lineup as much as possible. Now, could there be a battle for primary catcher? Absolutely. But I don’t think it’ll be to the point of other positions, where the loser would barely see the field.
Kyle Teel’s ranks among catchers in the 2nd half:
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) September 8, 2025
AVG: 2nd (.315)
OBP: 1st (.395)
OPS: 3rd (.895)
wRC+: 2nd (151)
fWAR: 4th (1.5)
The catcher of the future on the southside has been RAKING pic.twitter.com/RFzZHG5TNc
The White Sox have been trying to find stopgaps at positions for the past 2 years, but I think we’re going to see the corner be slightly turned and players start to solidify their names in the core.
This season is pivotal for guys like Meidroth and Mead, as they could see their playing time go elsewhere if they don’t prove they can be a long term piece. Whether that playing time goes to Sam Antonacci in 2026, Caleb Bonemer in 2027, or any player in any year, Meidroth and Mead could be very quickly on the outside looking in.
Could both of those players lock down spots long term? Definitely. Have either of them have done enough to 100% be on the big league roster in 2027? I don’t think so.
As it stands right now, the only infielder who has locked up his 2027 spot is Montgomery, in my eyes. But that all can change next year.
Rule 5 picks aren’t supposed to be as good as Shane Smith was in 2025. 146.1 IP of 3.81 ERA baseball shouldn’t be available for free in the offseason. If it was, every team in baseball would be lining up to bring Smith to their staff.
There were durability concerns with Smith last winter, which were warranted. He had never thrown more than 94.1 IP at any level of professional baseball, had only started 24 games combined across college and in the minor leagues.
This Shane Smith changeup is DISGUSTING pic.twitter.com/yGFSK80oaW
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2025
Then he went out and started 29 games in his rookie season, throwing his best baseball after he had already crossed his career high in IP.
In Smith’s final 10 starts, he threw 55.1 IP to the tune of a 3.09 ERA, 27.1% K%, 7.7% BB%, and a 27.1% Whiff%. Really encouraging stuff from a 25-year-old rookie, especially one who threw more than he ever did previously.
Not only was Smith throwing more than he ever did, he was also throwing harder the deeper he went into games. Here is a chart of Smith’s average fastball velocity, by game in 2025.
Smith averaged above 96.0 MPH on his fastball nine times in 2025, and six of them came in his final 10 starts.
If that’s a sign of things to come, it’s going to be very fun. Smith has good stuff, it’s just been about command. If the strikes can increase, he can be a backend SP1/elite SP2, and that may be selling him short a bit.
I know this fanbase has been burned in the past by buying into everything the general manager was saying, but I genuinely believe Chris Getz will be the reason the White Sox one day win their first World Series since 2005. It may not be in his tenure, but the things he’s doing will last long after he leaves, whenever that day should come.
This is the most analytically present the organization has ever been. Getz has dragged the team into the modern era of baseball. You can’t exactly quantify that to a win total, but I can assure you it helped more than it may seem.
There’s a reason why the most analytically savvy teams seem to always be good, and the ones who haven’t made it past Moneyball always are looking up at them.
The White Sox aren’t in the upper echelon of analytics yet, but they sure aren’t in the basement anymore. Are there areas that need more modernization? No doubt, that can be applied to just about any team in the league. But there are cases like Brian Bannister and Ryan Fuller, where without them, I’m not sure what this team would look like.
Does Garrett Crochet become a SP if Bannister isn’t brought in? Is Montgomery still struggling in AAA without Fuller? There are a lot of questions about the past without Getz, and the future with Getz.
But the point is, Getz has brought in fantastic personnel to help him make informed decisions, and not run a one man show. The fanbase wasn’t thrilled with the promotion of Getz initially, and especially not after his first season on the job. It wasn’t really warranted criticism, as he wasn’t the one who got them into that situation, so I cut him a little bit of slack.
Again, you and I have no clue if this is all actually going to work out (if you do, I’d like to inquire about lottery numbers). I know believing again can be difficult, especially after what was promised and what ended up happening.
But I’m trusting Chris Getz, because he’s doing things that a White Sox general manager hasn’t done before. It’s uncharted territory for the organization, and all we can do is hope for the best.
Here’s to hoping for a better 2026…
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