Texas Rangers Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Texas Rangers Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 44

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 10

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: None

MACKENZIE GORE (5.000): $8,900,000 ($3.3M raise)

The Case: Gore made 34 starts and threw 173 IP with a 4.58 ERA, 8-11 record and 9 quality starts after earning $5.6M in his previous arbitration trip.

Tanner Roark (2018, $3.525M raise) and Robbie Ray (2019, $3.38M raise) provide the historical comparisons. Both have slight advantages in IP and ERA that should keep Gore’s raise below them.

George Kirby (2026, $3.45M proj. raise) is a current-class comparison with essentially identical bulk, a better 4.33 ERA and a higher previous salary. Kirby should receive the higher salary. I project a $3.3M raise for Gore, bringing him to $8.9M.

Tender Prediction: Gore will be tendered a contract. With an aging Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, a lack of high-end pitching prospects, and all of the assets Texas gave up to acquire Gore, I wonder if the Rangers explore an extension.

It could make sense for both sides, although Gore is represented by Boras Corp., which rarely does this type of deal so close to free agency. At the same time, I am not sure how robust Gore’s multi-year market will be after another season with an ERA in the mid-4.00s, and it could be difficult to turn down guaranteed money if Texas is willing to offer four or five years. Tender.

JAKE BURGER (4.127): $6,075,000 ($2.875M raise)

The Case: Burger posted 620 PA with 28 HR at a 104 wRC+

Corey Dickerson (2017, $2.925M raise) provides the historical ceiling; Burger compares better in the power counting stats, while Dickerson has a significant wRC+ advantage posting a 116 wRC+ in his 629 PA.

Burger’s platform season finishes slightly ahead ofcurrent class comparison Spencer Torkelson (2026, $2.875M proj. raise) in PA, HR and RBI, while Torkelson holds the wRC+ advantage, making him the most direct current-class comparison. Burger belongs just below Dickerson and directly in line with Torkelson, so I project the same $2.875M raise, bringing him to $6.075M.

Tender Prediction: Burger will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

EZEQUIEL DURAN (4.053): $4,075,000 ($2.7M raise)

The Case: Duran enters the case from a $1.375M salary after totaling 597 PA with 17 HR, 83 RBI, 12 SB and a 109 wRC+ while starting at least 14 games at six different positions.

Ernie Clement (2025, $2.63M raise), Zach McKinstry (2025, $2.55M raise) and Luis García (2024, $2.55M raise). Duran post more PA with similar HR and wRC+ than all these comparisons in addition to his elite defense. For those reasons, Duran’s raise should be slightly above this entire group.

Jake McCarthy (2026, $2.7M proj. raise) is the current-class comparison and the clear statistical leader between the two, but Duran is close enough in overall production that both cases should belong at the same raise level. I project Duran for a $2.7M raise, bringing him to $4.075M.

Tender Prediction: Duran will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOSH JUNG (4.027): $5,950,000 ($2.05M raise)

The Case: Jung totaled 444 PA with a 136 wRC+ before ending the season on the IL, entering the case from a $3.9M salary.

Taylor Ward (2023, $2.05M raise) is the cleanest comparison after coming from a previous salary only about $150k away and also ending his platform season on the IL. Jung holds the bulk and quality advantages, while Ward has the run-production advantage. The cases belong in the same range, and there is no reason to create separation from Ward’s exact raise. I project Jung to match the $2.05M raise, bringing him to $5.95M.

Tender Prediction: Jung will be tendered a contract barring any major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

LOGAN O’HOPPE (3.171): $2,900,000 ($275k raise)

The Case: O’Hoppe totaled 274 Major League PA with 4 HR and a 63 wRC+ while spending more than a month on optional assignment and ending the season in Triple-A. He was also well below average defensively.

Caleb Joseph (2017, $550K raise), Chris Herrmann (2017, $362.5K raise) and Reese McGuire (2023, $275K raise) provide the historical range with comparable offensive production. Joseph and Herrmann were elite defenders, while McGuire’s defense was also poor. O’Hoppe’s defense and optional assignment place him at the bottom of the group. I project O’Hoppe to match McGuire’s $275K raise, bringing him to $2.9M.

Tender Prediction: O’Hoppe will be tendered a contract. The Rangers front office did a great job managing his service and earning an extra year of club control. Tender

CODY BRADFORD (3.086): $1,200,000

The Case: Bradford enters arbitration with an injury-filled career, totaling 171 career IP with a 4.29 ERA across 44 games and 29 starts, including 38.2 IP in his platform year.

Dinelson Lamet (2019, $1.3M salary) is the closest historical comparison after entering arbitration with 187.1 career IP and a 4.37 ERA, including 73 IP in his platform year.

All three of Bradford, Lamet and current-class comparison Brandon Williamson (2026, $1.25M proj. salary) finished their platform seasons healthy, but Lamet’s platform-year bulk advantage should keep him ahead of both current cases. Bradford’s career bulk and platform-year innings trail Williamson slightly, which creates a small separation between the two. I project Bradford at a $1.2M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Bradford should be tendered a contract. His remaining option gives the Rangers important roster flexibility. Tender.

ROBERT GARCIA (3.086): $925,000

The Case: Garcia’s platform season was almost completely derailed by a shoulder injury, making only 20 appearances and throwing 18.2 IP before returning in September, but he still enters arbitration with a pretty strong career leverage resume of 36 HLD and 9 SV across 174.1 IP with a 3.46 ERA.

Scott Alexander (2019, $875k salary) is almost a perfect historical comparison from the career side, entering arbitration with 171.1 IP, 36 HLD and 7 SV before throwing only 17.1 IP in his platform season. Garcia has two more career saves and pitched better when healthy in the platform year, which should get him above Alexander, but the missed time prevents him from separating too far.

Brock Stewart (2024, $880k salary) provides another limited-platform case after throwing only 15.2 IP, although Garcia’s career leverage production is significantly stronger. That puts Garcia above the high-$800k historical group, while Dedniel Nunez (2026, $925K proj. salary) gives us a logical current-class placement that should become a salary neighbor. I project a $925K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Garcia should be tendered a contract after pitching well in his return from injury. Tender.

WYATT LANGFORD (3.000): $3,525,000

The Case: Langford enters arbitration after three seasons of consistent offensive performance, posting at least a 112 wRC+ in all three seasons. He qualified in each of his first two seasons before falling short of qualification in his platform year, and he enters arbitration with 1,601 career PA, 55 HR and a 115 wRC+.

Oneil Cruz (2025, $3.3M salary) and Alec Burleson (2025, $3.3M salary) provide the recent historical foundation as 2x qualifiers with similar career bulk and power. Cruz entered with 1,553 career PA, 60 HR and a 100 wRC+, while Burleson entered with 1,541 PA, 48 HR and a 107 wRC+. Both qualified in their platform years and Burleson also carried a Silver Slugger, which gives the historical group clear platform-year and awards advantages despite Langford’s superior career offensive quality.

On the surface, that places Langford around the $3.3M group, but the current class should pull him higher. Andy Pages (2026, $3.7M proj. salary) enters with 1,641 career PA, 63 HR and a 112 wRC+, Wilyer Abreu (2026, $3.65M proj. salary) has 1,630 career PA, 63 HR and a 115 wRC+, while Jordan Walker (2026, $3.55M proj. salary) enters with 1,706 career PA, 56 HR and a 101 wRC+.

Langford’s career quality fits much better with this current-class group than the $3.3M lookback group, which allows him to move past the historical placement. However, his failure to qualify in the platform year and lack of the platform-year awards carried by some of these current-class comps should keep him at the very bottom of this tier.

The Rangers will argue that Langford not qualifying in his platform year separates him from this group and should also keep him below the lookback comps at $3.3M. It is a solid argument, but the career consistency that Langford possesses is something he does better than anybody in both the lookback comps and current-class comps and keeps him attached to that group. I project Langford at a $3.525M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Langford will be tendered a contract. This will be very interesting to monirot with how the current class shakes out and ending in a hearing wouldn’t be the most surprising outcome. Tender.

EVAN CARTER (2.170): $1,625,000

The Case: Carter enters arbitration after totaling 442 PA with 9 HR, 38 RBI, 16 SB and a 75 wRC+ in his platform year, bringing his career line to 899 PA, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 35 SB and a 93 wRC+.

Alex Call (2025, $1.6M salary) provides the historical placement point with 1005 career PA, 21 career HR and a 101 wRC+. However, Carter’s platform-year bulk should carry him just past Call, who only posted 322 PA and 5 HR in PY.

Nathan Lukes (2026, $1.7M proj. salary) is the best current-class comparison after totaling 429 PA with 10 HR, 39 RBI and a 101 wRC+ in his platform year, with 989 career PA, 23 HR, 116 RBI and a 104 wRC+. The platform-year counting stats are nearly identical and the career power is comparable, but Lukes has the clear quality advantage in both the platform year and career, which keeps Carter below him. I project Carter at a $1.625M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Carter will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JACOB LATZ (2.170): $3,050,000

The Case: Latz enters his first arbitration year with 212.1 career IP, a 2.76 ERA, 31 saves and 13 holds, with 30 of those 31 career saves coming in the platform year when he posted a 2.08 ERA.

Jason Foley (2024, $3.15M salary) provides the primary historical placement point after entering arbitration with 35 career saves, 42 holds and 225.2 career IP. Foley was a multi-year closer unlike Latz which should keep Foley ahead despite similar overall bulk.

Louis Varland (2026, $3.2M proj. salary) is the most direct current-class comparison and the case Latz’s representatives should attach themselves to. Varland also entered the platform year without a career save before breaking out as a closer, finishing with 34 saves and a 1.29 ERA, while carrying more career bulk at 294.1 IP. Latz will stay behind Varland and likely Foley too, I project a salary of $3.05M.

Tender Prediction: Latz will be tendered a contract. He is part of a really unique closer group entering arbitration with essentially all of the traditional closer production coming in the platform year, and this market should be very volatile. Tender.