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The Mets X-Factor going into Division series vs the Phillies

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kevin Martinez | Last updated Apr 22, 2025 5:17 PM ET

The New York Mets roll into Philadelphia with momentum, confidence, and a red-hot Pete Alonso, setting the stage for an NL East showdown against the Phillies. Fresh off a commanding four-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Mets (15-7) now turn their attention to their division rivals, with Alonso’s bat positioned as the undeniable X-factor in the series.

The Mets, who stunned baseball last October by eliminating the heavily favored Phillies in the National League Division Series, find themselves in familiar territory against Philadelphia this season— however, sitting atop the NL East with Philadelphia again chasing them, the Mets have a chance to extend their lead in the division.

Fresh off a sweep, the Mets hold a two-game division lead over the Phillies heading into Monday night's marquee matchup at Citi Field. The series marks the first meeting between the rivals since New York's NLDS victory last postseason.

Alonso's Hot Start Fuels Mets' Surge
First baseman Pete Alonso has been a driving force behind New York's strong start, batting .290 with 7 home runs and 21 RBIs through 22 games. His power bat looms large against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has struggled mightily in 2025 (0-4, 6.65 ERA) despite solid underlying metrics.

"Pete's locked in right now in a way that changes how pitchers approach our entire lineup," Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. "When he's seeing the ball like this, it gives everyone around him better opportunities."

Pitching Duel With Contrasting Narratives
The matchup features two starters on opposite trajectories:

Aaron Nola (PHI): Winless through 5 starts despite 3.98 xFIP; .377 BABIP suggests bad luck
Tylor Megill (NYM): 2-0 with MLB-best 1.40 ERA among qualified starters; 2.21 FIP indicates sustainability

Megill has dominated Philadelphia throughout his career (2.51 ERA in 8 starts), while Nola owns a solid 3.46 career ERA against the Mets. The Phillies are hoping their ace can reverse his early-season woes against the team that eliminated them last October.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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