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Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch (14) walks off the field after a pitching change against Minnesota Twins during the eighth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit in Monday, August 4, 2025 Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This One Stat Suggests Tigers Won't Win World Series This Season

Originally posted on Detroit Tigers on SI | By Brad Wakai | Last updated Aug 22, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The Detroit Tigers have returned to their perch above the rest of the American League.

They have put their struggles coming out of the All-Star break behind them and are starting to look like the team that dominated the first half of their season, getting great performances from their starting staff in conjunction with an offense that has started to find its groove.

But one thing looks different this year compared to the latter stages of 2024: the bullpen has struggled in comparison the shutdown unit they trotted out in October that allowed manager A.J. Hinch to use his "pitching chaos" strategy.

The Tigers entered Friday with a bullpen ERA of 3.97, which puts them 16th in Major League Baseball. That's certainly not awful, but Ryan Ford of The Detroit Free Press took a look at some historical indicators of past World Series winners and how they stack up to Detroit's current unit.

History Suggests Tigers Bullpen Isn't Good Enough To Win World Series

First highlighting the 1968 and 1984 World Series-winning Tigers teams that had a 2.26 ERA and a 2.74 ERA from their relievers, respectively, it's clear that this current relief staff isn't performing in that same manner, which is something to note when thinking about Detroit's true chances of winning the Fall Classic.

Ford took his analysis a step further, though, taking a look at the past 40 pennant winners by averaging out their ERA marks.

"... the average ERA of our 40 pennant winners, which came in at 3.65. Series winners averaged a 3.61 bullpen ERA, while series losers averaged a 3.69 ERA. Even within their own seasons, pennant winners tended to have top-10 bullpens; their average rank was 10.2," he wrote.

So, when factoring in that the Tigers sit at a figure of 3.97, which puts them 16th in baseball, history suggests this bullpen could be what prevents Detroit from reaching the World Series and winning it this year.

Tigers Bullpen Getting Better Since Deadline

The good news is the regular season isn't over just yet, with just over five weeks remaining.

That gives the Tigers' bullpen time to improve their standing in terms of overall ERA and where they rank across the MLB, something they have done since the trade deadline following the acquisition of Kyle Finnegan, who has been lights out.

Even since Ford put out his initial story, Detroit's bullpen ERA went from 4.04 at his time of writing to the current 3.97 ERA figure at the time of this writing, an enhancement that moved them from 17th in the MLB to 16th.

While that is not a major jump, it's still an improvement compared to where they were before. And with the recent promotion of Drew Sommers and the potential return of Alex Cobb, more weapons are slated to be joining this relief staff.

Still, this will be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. Because even though the Tigers have improved following the trade deadline when it comes to their reliever ERA, history suggests they might not be good enough to help Detroit win the World Series this year unless they reach those clear markers of success.