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Three Rays Players who could Regress in 2026
Top Image Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Three Rays Players who could Regress in 2026

Originally posted on Last Word On Sports
By Richard Gueren  |  Last updated Jan 15, 2026 3:59 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a down year in 2025, having posted a second straight losing season and hoping to make noise in 2026. Even finishing with 81 wins could be difficult with a loaded AL East that keeps making improvements.

Several players still had positive 2025 seasons, which helped keep the club interesting until they were officially eliminated in September. Having said that, not every player will repeat their performance from the prior season and there will be regression. The below players may not post gaudy numbers this season.

Three Rays Players who could Regress in 2026

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda was one of the most exciting parts of the 2025 Rays season because of the unexpected nature of his production. Who saw this coming after he posted an uninspiring .222/.309/.382 with 10 home runs, 33 RBIs and 45 runs scored in 110 games during the 2022-2024 seasons? What a difference a year made as Aranda burst onto the baseball stage.

Still, Aranda played in a career-high 106 games even though he spent a good chunk of the second half on the IL. The more worrying indicator is a .409 BABIP and 25.4% strikeout rate that sat in the 23rd percentile of baseball. The key will be staying healthy and improving on both sides of the ball. Fans of the Rays feel confident, but they probably aren’t ready to put their hands on the fire for Aranda just yet.

Junior Caminero

This one really hurts because Caminero, 22, became a star on the local and national stage last season. Finishing runner-up to Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh, the 22-year-old Caminero finished ninth in AL MVP voting with 45 home runs as a first time All-Star. However, he did strike out 125 times in 154 games. His on-base percentage could be an area to focus on next season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an example of a slugger who has diversified his game with a nifty .366 career OBP. Caminero aiming for that on-base ability could be a key ingredient to stave off regression.

Caminero is so young and it’s hard to compare him to any singular player. Still, Caminero will be under the microscope to support an offense that could be under the gun. Caminero is incredibly determined based on how hard he has been working this winter. Expect steady production, but maybe not the eye-popping statistics from a season ago.

Edwin Uceta

The 2026 season will start on an interesting note for Uceta, who is the only one of ten arbitration-eligible players heading to salary arbitration with the Rays. Uceta is asking for $1.525 million while the Rays want to pay him $1.2 million. It’s a gap of $325,000, nothing like the gap between AL Cy Winner Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers!

Uceta has a solid track record with his 2024 campaign coming out of nowhere. Uceta’s 2024 (103 K, 76 IP) was the kind of season that caused even national baseball fans to start paying attention. This season, Uceta got off to a slow start as he yielded a ton of home runs before the All-Star break. Then Uceta turned things around in a massive way after the All-Star break. The key in 2026 will be determining which version of Uceta can be counted upon.

The Bottom Line

Every team in baseball is going to have players who surpass and underwhelm expectations. Even the loaded teams in the AL East. The Rays have little margin for error and need a lot of things to go right. Even if the above players regress. they should still post enough production to support everyone else.

This article first appeared on Last Word On Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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