Top Notes From The New York Mets ZiPS Projections for 2025

Starting Pitchers

The Mendoza asked a lot of his starters in 2024 as the rotation threw the fifth-most innings of any in baseball at about 5 ½ per game. The Mets lost a big chunk of those innings as Luis Severino signed with the Athletics and a reunion with Jose Quintana seems unlikely at best.

To replace those two, the Mets started by bringing in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes — who they plan to transition from a reliever to a starter. Stearns added depth with the addition of Griffin Canning and capped off the rotation with Manaea’s re-signing.

Additionally, New York is getting Kodai Senga back from injury after he appeared just once in the 2024 regular season and twice in the playoffs. Senga finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 after putting up a 2.98 ERA in 166 ⅓ innings.

• How will Kodai Senga rebound from injury? — ZiPS likes Senga to return to success, however in a smaller sample. The model thinks that the 32-year-old Japan-native will put up a 3.51 ERA in just over 138 innings.
  
  Senga is projected to strikeout the most batters per nine innings (K/9) of any Mets starting pitcher (9.7). The innings will be something to keep an eye on as Senga tries to come back from a year on the sidelines, but Szymborski’s model does believe that he will come back strong.
• Can Clay Holmes adapt to a starting role? — Despite coming through the minors as a starting pitcher, Holmes has made just four starts at the MLB level.
  
  After inking a three-year, $38 million deal to be a starter with the Mets, it remains to be seen as to how Holmes will respond to the task. ZiPS projects that Holmes will throw 110 ⅔ innings to the tune of a 3.66 ERA. This projection only has Holmes tabbed for 16 starts, a number that barring injury or a move back to the bullpen, he should pass.
• Who will be the ace? — This gives me the opportunity to talk about Manaea, who had arguably the best season of his nine-year big league career.
  
  The projection is not terribly high on Manaea, despite predicting a team-high 144 innings, the left-hander is tabbed for a 4.31 ERA. Given the 181 ⅔ innings that Manaea threw to the tune of a 3.47 ERA last year, this projection seems a bit down on the 33-year old southpaw.
  
  If Senga bounces back the way that ZiPS thinks he will and Manaea struggles, Senga will regain his footing at the top of the Mets rotation, especially if he can deliver an increased workload.

The starting rotation will undoubtedly be the Mets make-or-break unit this year.

The article described that the projection model is not too high on Canning or fellow veteran starter Paul Blackburn, but is higher on top pitching prospects such as Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. Additionally, Szymborski’s system sees David Peterson returning to around league average while it is very low on Frankie Montas, as evident by his 4.65 projected ERA.

Bullpen

Stearns has placed a lot of emphasis on building strong bullpens in the past, and the Mets are no exception. While Minter and Stanek were the big ticket pickups of the relief corps, Stearns made smaller moves such as the acquisitions of Genesis Cabrera and Chris Devenski that will improve their overall pitching depth.

Additionally, if Blackburn, Canning or starter Tylor Megill are not deployed in the beginning of games, they could be options for Mendoza out of relief as well.

ZiPS has mixed feelings on the Mets pen. While it loves closer Edwin Diaz as well as Dedniel Nuñez, Reed Garrett and Jose Butto, the next level of depth scares the model.

Of course the caveat to this, is that the article was written before the signings of Minter and Stanek. Those two alone will help solidify the back-end of games for New York.

• Edwin Diaz is back to being elite — Some will tell you that he never stopped being the cream of the crop among National League closers, however his 2023 World Baseball Classic injury complicated things.
  
  Diaz pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 2024 which was fine but admittedly not great for a closer. Diaz also saved 20 games and blew seven saves which is not a great ratio, but pitched to a fielding independent pitching (FIP) of just 3.02.
  
  ZiPS thinks that he will continue getting better in 2025, predicting a 2.95 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 55 innings for the Puerto Rico native. Adding on, it projects Diaz to have the highest strikeout percentage (36.7%) of any Met and the most saves (36) in baseball.
• ZiPS likes Dedniel Nuñez, so long as he’s healthy — ZiPS projects Nuñez to have an ERA in the mid-3’s as he profiles as a multi-inning option in Mendoza’s bullpen.
  
  The over-arching theme with him is health, as Nuñez is currently ramping up from strained flexor tendon that he suffered in August of last season. While he avoided surgery, Mets personnel will likely be extremely cautious with their 29-year-old fireballer.
• Outside of Minter, who is a lefty option? — While Minter will play a huge role in the Mets’ bullpen, they do not have many left-handed options once he is used.
  
  The two biggest contenders to serve as Mendoza’s second lefty reliever or Danny Young and Genesis Cabrera. ZiPS is not high on either one of them as it projects a 4.33 and 4.48 ERA, respectively. The name of the game with relievers is depth, so one of those two or somebody else will have to step up and outperform those predictions.

Mets ZiPS: Final Thoughts

On the offensive side, the Mets are a fairly predictable team. You know what Soto, Alonso and Lindor will give you and you have a pretty good idea of what Nimmo will bring to the table. They did not lose any major pieces of their 2024 lineup that went to the NLCS, and added one of the five best hitters in the sport.

The concerning part will always be the pitching and with Montas already sidelined for 6-8 weeks with a lat strain, and now Manaea behind few weeks with a strained oblique, Mendoza, Stearns and Cohen may have to get creative with their arms. ZiPS is split on the Mets. Loving their offense while not being entirely sold on the pitching side.

Cohen said in his media availability from spring training camp on Tuesday, Feb. 18, that, “we’ve got to make the playoffs. That is the minimum.” ZiPS seems to think the Mets are on the right track with their upper-80 projected win total. Once adding Alonso, Minter and Stanek one would figure that this number would rise, but with a stacked NL East, only time will tell.