What Should the Red Sox Do With Triston Casas in 2026?

Player	Walk Rate	Expected Slugging
Juan Soto	18.6%	.536
Aaron Judge	18.3%	.697
Shohei Ohtani	15.2%	.637
Bryce Harper	14.7%	.530
Max Muncy	14.7%	.504
Matt Olson	14.4%	.558
Mookie Betts	13.9%	.563
Yordan Alvarez	13.9%	.623
Triston Casas	13.9%	.500

With so much success so early on in his career, Casas looked poised to become one of the game’s next great sluggers.

His detractors, however, will point out that the last two years have seen Casas fail to live up to the promise he showed as a rookie, thanks to a combination of untimely injuries and an alarming strikeout rate.

​The pressure for Casas to be not just an above-average hitter but an elite one is immense, given that he has consistently been near the bottom of the leaderboards in both sprint speed and Outs Above Average. He’s a bat-only player.

​No matter what side of the fence you are on, there is no denying that Casas’ 2025 campaign was an unmitigated disaster. Projected to be Boston’s second-best power bat after Rafael Devers, Casas stumbled out of the gate, slashing just .158/.229/.237 with a single home run through his first 21 games.

​He began to show some signs of life toward the end of the month, including a pair of longballs in back-to-back contests against the Seattle Mariners, but just when it looked like things were starting to turn around, Casas suffered a catastrophic leg injury while trying to beat out a groundball on May 3. He was diagnosed with a ruptured patellar tendon and underwent season-ending surgery, putting both his 2026 Opening Day availability and his future with the Red Sox in doubt.

​Casas’ injury had a fascinating butterfly effect that would ultimately play a part in Rafael Devers getting shipped to San Francisco, as the former face of the franchise’s refusal to take over at first base proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

For Casas himself, however, his second straight season truncated by a major injury only added to the questions surrounding his role moving forward.

Red Sox chief baseball office Craig Breslow reflected the uncertainty during his end-of-season press conference, alluding to Casas’ still-intriguing upside but admitting he just hasn’t been healthy or reliable enough through his first three MLB seasons.

“I don’t think it makes a ton of sense on Oct. 6th to say someone is or isn’t our first baseman and we’ll see how things play out,” Breslow said. “Unfortunately, Triston has missed a significant amount of time over the last two years. We’ve also seen what he’s capable of doing when he’s healthy.”

Putting aside whether Casas wins the starting first base job out of camp, it is a near-certainty that he will be in the organization in some capacity in 2026.

While veteran first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who was signed in August after getting DFA’d by the Nationals, is a strong non-tender candidate due to his projected $13.5 million salary in 2026, MLB Trade Rumors predicts Casas to make only $1.7 million next season. Despite the obvious health risks, Casas is worth that salary on sheer potential alone.

​It is also unlikely that Casas will be the subject of trade rumors like he was last offseason, when he was reportedly discussed in a trade for Mariners starter Luis Castillo. If the Red Sox were unable to find a deal to their liking last winter, they would be ill-advised to move the 25-year-old at his lowest possible value.

Yet ​just because Casas is almost guaranteed to be in the organization in 2026 doesn’t mean that the Red Sox should pencil him in as the Opening Day first baseman. Their lineup is in need of an impact bat, as they ranked just 27th in the majors in home runs in the second half.

The return and presumed progression of standout rookie Roman Anthony should help, but the Steamer projections don’t envision any player currently on the roster to finish within the top 30 in the majors in home runs in 2026. Fortunately for the Red Sox, there are two sluggers available on the free agent market that could change the equation entirely.

​Pete Alonso is testing the waters once again after opting out of the two-year,$54 million deal he signed with the New York Mets last winter, and though his reported desire for a long-term deal may once again scare off teams, there’s no denying his reputation as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He has never hit fewer than 34 home runs in a non-COVID season, and only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber have hit more home runs since his debut in 2019.

​Speaking of Schwarber, the three-time All-Star will also be on the market after four fantastic seasons with the Phillies. Since his arriving in Philadelphia before the 2022 season, only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have hit more home runs, while only Judge, Alonso and Matt Olson have driven in more runs.

​Though he is now well into his thirties, Schwarber isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, blasting a NL-leading 56 home runs last season and ranking in the 98th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, expected slugging and hard-hit rate.

Schwarber was a fan favorite during his half-season in Boston, and MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported that the club would show real interest if there isn’t a quick reunion with the Phillies.

​Both Schwarber and Alonso have the potential to transform the Red Sox’s lineup, but for Casas, each represents a potential threat to his ability to reclaim an everyday spot in the lineup. Though his metrics suggest otherwise, Alonso has thus far been able to stave off a move to DH, and he will likely make the option for him to play first base – at least in the short-term – a requirement for any potential suitor.

​Schwarber, meanwhile, is almost certainly a full-time DH at this stage of his career, but the presence of another slow-footed left-handed slugger wouldn’t exactly be a good sign for Casas’ long-term standing with the team.

​All told, there are a lot of moving parts with the Red Sox’s potential roster, and that’s without mentioning the persistent questions surrounding designated hitter/left fielder Masataka Yoshida. In the middle of all the chaos stands Casas, who has had too much major league success to give up on but has suffered too many setbacks to be counted on.

​The best thing for both parties would be for the Red Sox to ease him back into action, conducting offseason business with the presumption that Casas won’t be part of the Opening Day roster but leaving an avenue for him to contribute if and when he is ready.

This should involve pairing him with a strong platoon partner at first base, both to ease him back into defensive action and protect him against left-handed pitchers, whom he hit just .215 against in 2023.

​Romy Gonzalez would be an obvious in-house solution, given that he slashed .331/.378/.600 against lefties last season, but he may be preoccupied shielding rookie Marcelo Mayer at second base.

​If the Red Sox are looking for purely a first base platoon partner, a one-year deal with Paul Goldschmidt could make a lot of sense. Though the 38-year-old is far removed from his MVP days, he still posted a .981 OPS against southpaws last season.

​If the Red Sox sign Alonso or another first baseman and shift Casas over to designated hitter, there would be even more options. One potential fit is Randal Grichuk, who is coming off a subpar 2025 campaign but slashed .319/.386/.528 against lefties in 2024.

​Regardless of which avenue the Red Sox choose, 2026 will be a make-or-break season for Casas. While another injury-plagued campaign could be the final nail in the coffin for Casas’ case as “first baseman of the future,” there is still time for the 26-year-old to make good on his middle-of-the-order potential.

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