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What’s been the biggest surprise for the Braves?
Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Through 21 games, the Braves are 14–7, five games clear of the rest of the NL East.

One could argue the biggest surprise so far hasn’t even been Atlanta — it’s been the rest of the division. The Phillies look like a shell of the team that’s controlled the NL East the last two seasons, and the Mets — along with their gaudy payroll — are in the middle of a 10-game losing streak and already sit seven games back. It’s far too early to draw firm conclusions, but the Braves found themselves in a similar spot a year ago and never recovered. It may be April, but it’s not nothing.

Atlanta’s hot start, frankly, is shocking in a lot of ways. This is a team that lost three legitimate top-flight starters to the IL right before the season began. Spencer Schwellenbach is one of the best young pitchers in the game, Hurston Waldrep was excellent last year, and Spencer Strider — fortunately — should be back soon.

As if that wasn’t enough, Jurickson Profar was hit with a PED suspension for the second time in as many years. One-year ban, and it came too close to the season for the Braves to do anything to replace him.

Heading into Opening Day, the rotation looked like Chris Sale and four massive question marks. At least, that’s how it looked on paper. Instead, it’s been the best rotation in baseball.

Sale has been Sale, turning in another dominant outing Saturday against the Phillies, but Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López, and even Bryce Elder and Martín Pérez have more than held their own.

If the Cy Young were handed out today, you could make a real case for Elder, whose refined approach — along with the help of Greg Maddux — has him sitting on a 0.77 ERA through four starts. That might be the biggest surprise of the season, though it’s rivaled closely by Pérez, who’s coming off six shutout innings against Philadelphia and owns a 2.21 ERA.

You could single out individuals, but at this point, it makes more sense to credit the entire group. Holmes currently has the highest ERA in the rotation — and it’s still just 3.32. That tells you everything you need to know.

And you can’t talk about surprises without mentioning Dominic Smith. He signed a minor-league deal worth just $1.25 million if he made the roster. He did — and through 21 games, he might be the team’s MVP, hitting .362 with four home runs and already delivering two game-winning hits.

There’s almost no chance this level of production is sustainable. There’s a very real possibility Pérez and Elder aren’t even in the rotation in a couple of months, and who knows how Smith fits once Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim return. It’s probably more likely than not that at least one — if not all three — aren’t around by season’s end.

But none of that matters right now. The Braves needed guys to step up, and these three have carried the load. When the season ends and the division race is decided, they’ll be remembered fondly as integral pieces to the story.

This article first appeared on SportsTalkATL and was syndicated with permission.

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