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Where Blue Jays’ payroll stands after settling 2025 arbitration cases
Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Where Blue Jays’ payroll stands after settling 2025 arbitration cases

Originally posted on Bluejaysnation  |  By Thomas Hall  |  Last updated Jan 10, 2025 11:30 AM ET

Unlike last off-season, the Toronto Blue Jays avoided arbitration with every eligible player prior to Thursday’s salary exchange deadline, settling all eight cases, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s. With that part of the winter now concluded, let’s examine where this leaves the club’s 2025 payroll.

But first, it’s worth exploring how Toronto fared compared to its projected arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors.

As of Thursday, the organization had already resolved one of its eight arbitration cases, with right-hander Erik Swanson agreeing to a one-year, $3-million contract in late November. That addressed his final year of club control with the franchise, which came in at $200,000 below his $3.2 million projection per MLBTR.

So, seven arbitration-eligible players remained unsigned ahead of the sport’s 1 p.m. ET soft deadline, totalling $48.1 million in projected salaries for Guerrero, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Alek Manoah, Nick Sandlin and Zach Pop.

After the dust settled, metaphorically and literally, the amount of money spent to avoid arbitration with all seven players totalled a hair over $48 million, stretching to approximately $51 million after including Swanson’s deal. Overall, the Blue Jays resolved all eight cases while spending just under $300,000 less than their projection from MLBTR.

For reference, here’s the breakdown between the official dollars spent and MLBTR’s projections involving the team’s final seven arbitration-eligible players.

  • Guerrero Jr. — $28.5 million, $29.6-million projection
  • Varsho — $8.2 million, $7.7-million projection
  • Kirk — $4.6 million, $4.1-million projection
  • Manoah — $2.2 million, $2.4-million projection
  • Sandlin — $1.63 million, $1.6-million projection
  • Clement — $1.975 million, $1.7-million projection
  • Pop — $900,000, $1-million projection

It’s minuscule savings, especially in a market like Toronto. But, for context, the team’s 2025 Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll now sits at roughly $228.3 million, according to FanGraphs’ RosterResource. That puts them almost $13 million below the initial luxury tax threshold ($241 million) and just under $33 million shy of the second bracket ($261 million).

There’s still plenty of work ahead as the Blue Jays look to acquire at least one impact hitter and one starter while rounding out their bullpen and locating a reliable backup catcher. But that’s not all. They’re also up against a deadline to extend Guerrero, who’s previously announced he doesn’t plan to negotiate past the first full-squad workout of spring training.

If the four-time All-Star does ink a new deal before then, it won’t tear up the one-year, $28.5-million contract he signed on Thursday. Any extension would begin the following season, adjusting the first baseman’s average annual value (AAV). As such, it wouldn’t impact the franchise’s CBT payroll for 2025, providing management with cost certainty for the remainder of the off-season.

Given the state of the Blue Jays’ roster retool, avoiding arbitration with Guerrero before potentially extending him will likely serve as valuable financial flexibility moving forward. However, they’ll probably have to act creatively with insufficient resources to address every remaining need.

With pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training in less than five weeks, the pressure is certainly on Toronto’s front office to work swiftly between now and then.

This article first appeared on Bluejaysnation and was syndicated with permission.

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