Where Did Sonny Gray’s Strikeouts Go?

Sonny Gray has delivered on being a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Boston Red Sox so far.

After a brief rocky start to the season, Gray has provided stability for Boston, posting a 9-1 record with a 2.95 ERA while tying for the second-most wins in MLB. There’s even a shot Gray will be one of the few All-Stars for the Red Sox, which would be Gray’s fourth All-Star selection.

While these surface-level numbers are very appealing, especially to teams potentially viewing him as a trade candidate, underlying issues remain.

His decline in his whiff rate and strikeout rate is jarring. After striking out over 200 in his past two seasons, he only has 66 up to this point compared to 90 last season and 95 in 2024.

So far, this dip has been manageable for Gray, as he has been one of the best arms in Boston’s rotation. But will it be manageable down the stretch? What’s more, if the Red Sox want to trade him, will these issues cause his trade value to dip?

A Steep Decline

Before joining Boston, Gray had been one of the top pitchers in MLB when it comes to strikeouts, recording a 26.7% strikeout rate in 2025, good for 12th best, and a 30.3% rate in 2024, tied for second best.

This season, he ranks 54th among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched at just 21.1%.

His whiff rate is also down from 27.5% last season to 22.2% this year.

While this is normal among aging pitchers, this decline is still something to keep in mind. But it might not be a purely a product of age for Gray.

For the first time in his career, his cutter is his most utilized pitch, throwing it 21% of the time compared to 12.6% last year.

Pitching coach Andrew Bailey introduced his philosophy of throwing fewer fastballs to the Boston pitching staff when he joined in 2024.

Instead of heavily relying on a fastball as a primary pitch, pitchers will throw cutters and sinkers more often.

You can see with pitchers like Garrett Crochet, Payton Tolle, and Aroldis Chapman that this is true for those who enter Bailey’s pitching lab.

Crochet went from throwing his fastball 53.6% in 2024 to 35.9% in 2025; Tolle went from 64.1% in 2025 to 49.5% in 2026, adding a sinker to his arsenal in 2026; and Chapman’s sinker usage went from 27.7% in 2024 to 40.6% in 2026.

This pitch-mix change for Gray could be what’s affecting his strikeout rate and swing-and-miss percentage, and adjusting usage could help his numbers.

Gray’s rocky start can also be at fault, with his strikeout rate at 15.1% in his first seven starts this year, compared to 24.2% through his first seven starts last season. Joining a new staff, a new city, and new coaches could have affected Gray at the start.

Trade Value

Many expect Boston to trade Gray at the deadline to a contender seeking rotation help, and Gray is open to the idea.

“If someone came to me from the Red Sox and made a decision that that’s the direction that this team was going to go, I would be open for a conversation,” Gray said in an interview with Boston Globe’s Tim Healey.

Gray has a no-trade clause on his contract, so he would need to approve any deal Boston could make. Along with that, Boston may need to pay part of his $10 million mutual option buyout for 2027 to help facilitate a deal.

At the moment, the Atlanta Braves make the most sense for Gray. He’s been linked to the Braves in the past, and they’ll need another dependable arm for the second half of the season, plus the postseason.

A potential trade between the two clubs could see the Braves trade their No. 7 prospect, Briggs McKenzie, a left-handed pitcher, headlining the deal with another one to two lower-end prospects.

We’re yet to see how the market will unfold, as no major trades have occurred yet. If the Detroit Tigers move ace Tarik Skubal, that could set the market for pitchers at the deadline.

Teams missing out on Skubal can pivot to Gray, and Skubal’s likely large return could boost Gray’s deal for Boston.

But will Gray’s declining strikeout and whiff rates diminish his value? Possibly. There are still plenty of indicators that he’ll be a top contributing member to any pitching staff.

He still boasts a good 6.4% walk rate and a solid ground-ball rate of 48.1%. Among his peers around his age, he still holds his own.