Which Braves prospects might be the breakout performers of 2024?

The Atlanta Braves, while not having a "great" farm system, have a farm system that's pretty in-tune with the major league roster's needs. 

We all know the top prospects in the system: RHPs AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep. But who are some of the players who could reach top prospect status by the end of the 2024 season? 

Let's look at some of the possibilities. 

RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Yeah, it's hard to call any organization's #3 prospect a potential "breakout" performer, but he has a legitimate chance to become a top 100 prospect in the game with a good 2024. 

Recovering from collegiate Tommy John surgery in 2023 to throw 65 innings last season, Schwellebach flipped the usual post-TJ calculus on its head: His control was seemingly back (only 2.2 BB/9) before his swing-and-miss stuff (only 7.6 K/9). 

But there was a pronounced improvement down the stretch for the former two-way player, with his final two starts for High-A Rome being a combined eleven innings with eleven strikeouts and only two hits, not walking anyone and allowing no runs. 

Schwellenbach had built up to about 80 or so pitches before missing over a month with shoulder inflammation, not exceeding 65 pitches after returning to action in August. If he's healthy and back to averaging at least one strikeout per inning, look for Atlanta to aggressively push him in an effort to find the true level where he'll be challenged, because he wasn't at High-A to close last season. A High-A to Double-A season with a brief late-season cameo in Triple-A is possible, workload permitting. 

RHP Jhancarlos Lara

Our #13 prospect, Lara was mainly a two-pitch guy last year, making it happen with a fastball/slider combo that was used over 90% of the time. Better incorporation of his mid-80s changeup will be the differentiator here, as it's a decent pitch that he just hasn't used enough. 

There's also the thought process of betting on a guy in the year after their "change of scenery", with the Dominican Republic-born Lara having spent his first year stateside in 2023, a challenging adjustment for anyone, nevermind a professional athlete that's also pitching the longest season of his life. Now that he's got 80+ innings under his belt and a year to adjust, look out for Lara to make AA Mississippi this season. 

OF Luis Guanipa

From a guy who has already adjusted to full-season ball to one that's going to be doing that in 2024, Guanipa is expected to head stateside this year and his assignment will be interesting: Does Atlanta, mindful of the late-season swoon in his 2023 DSL season, keep him in extended spring for a while and then let him spend all summer at the complex? Or do they push him into competition in Augusta, relying on his athleticism to hold up through the sweltering South Carolina summer? 

(Yes, Augusta's ballpark, SRP Park, is on the South Carolina side of the border, in North Augusta, It's part of the Augusta, GA metro area, but if you want to be technically correct - which is the best kind of correct - they're not in the state of Georgia.)

Depending on how Guanipa's offseason went, a full season in Single-A could pay dividends for the outfield speedster with some of the best tools in the 2023 J15 class. 

RHP Garrett Baumann

Baumann's got the size (6'8, 245) and velocity (touching 97 on his fastball) to dominate. Atlanta thought so after the draft, with his only professional appearance being in Single-A instead of rookie ball in the Florida Complex League. 

Given that the most raw of his three pitches is his slider and Atlanta's historically been pretty good at improving that particular pitch with their prospects, the potential's there for both physical gains that lead to increased velocity and a new level of dominance that could push the Florida native to High-A Rome by the end of the season.

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