Which Minnesota Twins All-Star Will Be Traded First?

Ryan, 29, is coming off the best season of his career in 2025. Across 30 starts and 31 appearances, he posted career bests in ERA (3.42), innings (171.0), and tied his career high with 3.1 fWAR. While he walked hitters more frequently than recent seasons, he also struck more guys out.

At the deadline, it appeared he was very close to getting moved to the Boston Red Sox. In fact, for about 30 seconds, several reputable sports media outlets posted that he had been dealt to Boston.

Alas, he was not.

With the lack of a concrete deadline to work with, let’s take a step back and look at Ryan’s case as a trade target.

Strengths

Since debuting in 2021, Ryan gets better annually. He took a slight step back in 2023, but that was largely to do with an increase in homers against. He saw a dramatic improvement in strikeout-to-walk rate, made more starts, and logged 14 more innings than his 2022 season.

In 2025, he truly put it all together. He finally sustained health for an entire season, paired that with his best raw numbers, and made his first All-Star Game.

Ryan’s fastball may not be overpowering, but it certainly plays like it is. Despite having 37th-percentile average velocity, he ranked in the 93rd percentile for run value. Opponents had a .197 expected batting average against his four-seam with a league-leading 109 strikeouts.

His sweeper is arguably just as filthy, too. Opposing batters had a 34.0% whiff rate and a .175 xBA against it in 2025. His combination of four-seam and sweeper makes for a very uncomfortable at-bat.

Weaknesses

The disturbing trend of second-half struggles continued into 2025 for Ryan.

The 29-year-old posted a 4.67 ERA after the All-Star break last season in 12 starts. His career 4.71 ERA in second halves means he kept it pretty on-par this past season, but acquiring that production could’ve cost the wrong team in the immediate aftermath.

He has his home run rate to thank for that, as his homers per fly ball ballooned to 17.1 percent in the second half, nearly doubling the 9.0% of his first half.

Call it wear and tear of a fully healthy season, call it regression to the mean, but Ryan gave up a lot of loud contact in 2025. He was better at avoiding hard contact in 2024, but he’s still below league average at missing the barrel.

He saw a dramatic reduction in his chase rate in 2025 as well. Perhaps that’s a couple of mechanical tweaks away from correcting itself, but it’s also an annual trend since the 2023 season.

Pablo López

Injuries limited López to just 14 starts in 2025, but he was very good in those starts.

After a disappointing 2024 at the surface, the right-hander posted a 2.74 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and 1.8 fWAR in just 75.2 innings. His strikeouts dipped a bit and walks increased, but he’s still one of the game’s better right handers.

Like Ryan, López is 29 and controlled through the 2027 season. The difference is López is already on a second contract and making $43.5 million the next two seasons.

Strengths

Before the season, López logged 32 starts a year from 2022 through 2024. Though he’s seen some mixed results in Minnesota, he’s maintained above-average strikeout numbers and has razor-sharp command.

His fastball isn’t as potent as Ryan’s, but it was still in the 82nd percentile for run value in 2025. It’s López’s breaking pitches that find the most success; opponents hit .133 with a 30.1% whiff rate last year against his sweeper, and his curveball yielded an opponent average of .158 with a 40.0% whiff rate.

Generally speaking, he’s very good at missing the barrel and limiting hard contact. Even in a down year in 2024, he hovered around league average in barrel and hard-hit rate.

Weaknesses

It’s hard to look at a forearm injury and not keep it in the back of your mind. Oftentimes, those types of injuries can be precursors for Tommy John surgery. Granted, with the rise in elbow injuries, pitchers are only healthy until they aren’t, but it’s something to note.

Another red flag is his ground-ball rate is on steady decline since it peaked at 52.2% in 2020. Last season, it dipped below 40% for the first time in his MLB career. Perhaps that would’ve corrected itself with more volume, but there’s no way of knowing that for sure.

As much as the contract is a nice bonus, a $21.75 million AAV with two years remaining and a recent arm injury almost negates the team control appeal. As talented as López is, his contract is very moveable and therefore eating that salary doesn’t carry as much weight in a trade.

The Verdict

Push comes to shove, Ryan seems the likelier candidate dealt first.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Twins believe they can contend next year and would have to be blown away to trade any of their stars. Is that more of a leverage play? Maybe. But there’s recent precedent of quick turnarounds in the American League Central as well.

That said, between Ryan and López, who is the pitcher a team is likelier to “blow away” the Twins for? Thinking back to last summer’s trade deadline, it was Ryan. Now, Lópezwas injured at the time and therefore not at the forefront of people’s minds, but the Red Sox especially fixated on the right hander.

The mix of elite fastball and sweeper makes Ryan an attractive target as well. While López has arguably a more effective array of breakers, the fastball dramatically favored Ryan last season.

As it stands, though, it appears it’ll be tough to pry either from Minnesota. That doesn’t mean they’ll both remain with the organization in 2026, but only time will tell.