Wild Things — Walk Prop Data Drop

As betting becomes more and more ubiquitous, we've witnessed an ever-growing interest in player props, perceived as somewhat softer markets due to access and specialization. When I started polling the audience for what they'd like to see or had trouble scraping, walk props were easily the most popular answer.

I placed all of today's probable starters' 2025 walk and ball rates next to their opponent, plus where that offense ranks in taking free passes.

• Randy Vasquez SD — 11.7% Walk, 39.0% Ball vs. Brewers 9.1% Walk, Rank 11
• Bryce Miller SEA — 11.4% Walk, 37.9% Ball vs. Angels 7.0% Walk, Rank 29
• Logan Allen CLE — 11.3% Walk, 39.7% Ball vs. Astros 7.7% Walk, Rank 23
• Kodai Senga NYM — 11.2% Walk, 39.5% Ball vs. Rockies 7.2% Walk, Rank 27
• Will Warren NYY — 10.3% Walk, 39.5% Ball vs. Red Sox 8.7% Walk, Rank 16
• Edward Cabrera MIA — 9.6% Walk, 37.3% Ball vs. Rays 8.2% Walk, Rank 22
• Eric Lauer TOR — 8.9% Walk, 35.2% Ball vs. Twins 7.7% Walk, Rank 24
• Eduardo Rodriguez ARI — 8.5% Walk, 39.1% Ball vs. Reds 9.2% Walk, Rank 9
• Bailey Falter PIT — 8.5% Walk, 36.7% Ball vs. Phillies 9.4% Walk, Rank 7
• Patrick Corbin TEX — 8.2% Walk, 37.8% Ball vs. Nationals 7.7% Walk, Rank 25
• Justin Wrobleski LAD — 7.9% Walk, 33.3% Ball vs. Cardinals 8.6% Walk, Rank 19
• Hayden Birdsong SF — 7.5% Walk, 35.9% Ball vs. Braves 9.0% Walk, Rank 13
• Ben Brown CHC — 7.5% Walk, 33.5% Ball vs. Tigers 8.8% Walk, Rank 15
• Walker Buehler BOS — 7.5% Walk, 36.7% Ball vs. Yankees 10.5% Walk, Rank 1
• Kyle Hendricks LAA — 7.2% Walk, 34.6% Ball vs. Mariners 9.5% Walk, Rank 6
• Seth Lugo KC — 7.1% Walk, 35.6% Ball vs. White Sox 9.0% Walk, Rank 14
• Chad Patrick MIL — 6.8% Walk, 35.9% Ball vs. Padres 8.3% Walk, Rank 20
• Dean Kremer BAL — 6.2% Walk, 33.8% Ball vs. Athletics 8.6% Walk, Rank 17
• Davis Martin CHW — 6.0% Walk, 36.6% Ball vs. Royals 6.4% Walk, Rank 30
• Antonio Senzatela COL — 6.0% Walk, 37.5% Ball vs. Mets 9.6% Walk, Rank 5
• Joe Ross PHI — 5.6% Walk, 33.0% Ball vs. Pirates 9.2% Walk, Rank 10
• Bailey Ober MIN — 5.2% Walk, 32.4% Ball vs. Blue Jays 9.1% Walk, Rank 12
• Sonny Gray STL — 5.0% Walk, 33.7% Ball vs. Dodgers 9.8% Walk, Rank 2
• Nick Lodolo CIN — 4.8% Walk, 34.6% Ball vs. D-backs 9.6% Walk, Rank 3
• Mike Soroka WSH — 4.6% Walk, 32.0% Ball vs. Rangers 7.2% Walk, Rank 28
• JP Sears ATH — 4.1% Walk, 34.4% Ball vs. Orioles 7.6% Walk, Rank 26
• Spencer Schwellenbach ATL — 4.0% Walk, 31.4% Ball vs. Giants 9.4% Walk, Rank 8
• Zack Littell TB — 3.7% Walk, 31.2% Ball vs. Marlins 8.2% Walk, Rank 21
• Colton Gordon HOU — 3.4% Walk, 29.0% Ball vs. Guardians 8.6% Walk, Rank 18
• Tarik Skubal DET — 2.5% Walk, 28.8% Ball vs. Cubs 9.6% Walk, Rank 4

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

From a glance, I'm expecting at least two walks from Randy Vasquez, Will Warren, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bailey Falter. Conversely, I'd be looking for fewer than two base on balls from Sonny Gray, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Tarik Skubal. Could make for some interesting parlays — I'll start tracking these today.

Thanks for reading!

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