Will Gabriel Moreno Become one of MLB's Best Catchers in 2025?

Why Moreno could surpass his projections

Injuries have hampered Moreno's first two years with the Diamondbacks somewhat heavily. Numerous scares and swings to the head have left D-backs fans biting their nails with worry regularly. This of course is mostly bad luck while playing arguably the hardest position in baseball.

Moreno missed over a month in 2024 alone due to a combination of a left adductor strain and a sprained left thumb. While predicting injury or health can never be counted on, if the young catcher stays relatively healthy in 2025 he should be able to at minimum reach the projected 431 PA mark, if not surpass it without much difficulty.

Another part of the righty backstop's game is his incredible bat control. He is seemingly able to direct the ball in whatever direction is needed in order to get the D-backs in a winning position. This has been so celebrated in Arizona that the club's announcers have coined the phrase "Gabi Lane" as the gap between the first and second baseman.

This ability has led Moreno to have generally higher batting averages. In 2024 this was not the case, only hitting to a .266 mark, which between injury, and some underperformance, should pave the way for a better hitting season in 2025.

Projections list his batting average at .283, which he surpassed in 2023. A return to form would let him clear his projections easily.

Why Moreno might fall short of projections

While Moreno has put up some impressive seasons in his young career, one part of his game that hasn't fully developed yet is his power, with just 12 career home runs in a D-backs uniform. At only 24 years old, this tool still has plenty of time to show itself.

Projections, however, see him reaching just nine home runs in 2025. This may have happened with good health in 2023, where he belted seven round-trippers in 380 PAs. 2024 wasn't closer, with only 5 home runs in his once again limited sample.

To reach or even surpass his projections Moreno would need a healthy season where he elevates the ball far more than he currently has. While he could very well find his way there, simply going off previous years' marks things don't look certain.

Another projected metric that may not go Moreno's way is OPS. While closely related to the aforementioned home run stat, his projected OPS sits at a surprising .772.

This mark far surpasses any total that the young catcher has accrued in his career. In 2023 Moreno tallied a .747 OPS, and in 2024 this fell slightly to .734. A jump of nearly .040 points would require a big breakout with his bat. While the righty is certainly capable of this, he may also stick around the range of offense that he has shown in the last two years.

Summary

Moreno is an incredibly talented young ballplayer. While his offense hasn't broken out yet completely at the major league level, his defense is already historically good. Winning a Gold Glove in 2023, he has set himself up nicely for a future with the Diamondbacks as one of their most important assets.

At only 24 years old he has plenty of time to find his power stroke, something that was displayed on a national stage during Arizona's magical run to the World Series in 2023. While projections of 9 home runs and a .772 OPS may seem out of reach now, a year from now things may look far different.

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