New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice. Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Yankees' leadoff crisis could derail playoff odds

By Colin Cerniglia | Last updated Jun 29, 2025 11:35 AM ET

The New York Yankees have been shut out five times in June alone. That's more than they managed in April and May combined, and it reveals why their 47-35 record tells only half the story.

The Yankees enter Sunday with baseball's best run differential (tied with the Cubs at +106) and a 95% playoff probability per FanGraphs, but their June offensive collapse exposes a fatal flaw: The leadoff spot is broken, and it's breaking everything else.

The numbers show the damage. Yankees leadoff hitters rank 22nd in hits, 23rd in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage and 13th in OPS. Manager Aaron Boone has rotated through Ben Rice, Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt, but none have solved the equation.

Here's what happens when your leadoff spot fails: Aaron Judge's OPS dropped from 1.200-plus in March-April and May to .902 in June. Giancarlo Stanton hasn't homered in 34 at-bats since returning from injury. Goldschmidt is hitting .148 this month.

The Yankees' team OPS tells the complete story: fourth in April, tied for second in May, then plummeting to 20th in June. That's not a slump. That's a structural problem.

"We've put ourselves in a pretty good spot here through this first half with some of the ups and downs," Boone said per SNY on Friday. "So, incomplete, but I feel confident that we have the chance to be a really good club."

Confidence won't fix lineup construction. The Yankees became MLB's first team to lead off games with three straight home runs twice in one season, proving their early potential. But that was spring magic. June reality shows five shutouts in one month.

Baseball's modern leadoff hitter looks different than the past. Kyle Schwarber proves 30-homer guys can bat first. But the core mission remains identical: get on base, create pressure, let the middle order feast on easier pitches.

Without that pressure, opposing pitchers attack Judge, Stanton and Goldschmidt differently. Solo homers hurt less than three-run shots. First-pitch strikes become more aggressive. The entire offensive ecosystem shifts when the top fails.

Last season, Gleyber Torres (now with the Detroit Tigers) stepped into the leadoff role during similar struggles and posted a .755 OPS in 266 plate appearances — and the Yankees rode his consistent bat to a World Series appearance.

Trade options exist. Arizona's Eugenio Suarez and Colorado's Ryan McMahon could provide leadoff production (and have experience) while addressing defensive needs. But the Yankees' internal options have proven insufficient through 82 games.

The math is simple: Teams with 95% playoff odds don't typically waste those chances on solvable problems. June's five shutouts happened because the lineup's foundation cracked. July won't be different without repairs.

Championship teams identify critical weaknesses before they become season-ending failures. The Yankees have six weeks before the trade deadline (July 31) to fix their leadoff problem. Their postseason fate may depend on it.

Colin Cerniglia

Colin Cerniglia is an Amazon bestselling author, co-host of the "2 Jocks and a Schlub" podcast from Blue Wire, and a contributor to The Charlotte Observer. With a deep passion for baseball and college football, he offers extensive knowledge and enthusiasm to his writing. Colin resides in Charlotte, NC, with his wife and two daughters

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