Charles Oliveira Vs. Mateusz Gamrot – How Does It Play Out?

Charles Oliveira has stated that Mateusz Gamrot is next for him at UFC Rio on October 11 following Rafael Fiziev’s withdrawal with injury, as we look at how the fight could play out.

Oliveira is seeking to bounce back from a first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June, as he missed out on the vacant lightweight belt. Meanwhile, Gamrot is also coming off a knockout defeat in his last outing against Ludovit Klein in May.

The Approach

For Oliveira to win, he must deal with Gamrot’s wrestling and find an opportunity to utilize his superior jiu-jitsu. A key example would be if Gamrot shoots for an early takedown. Oliveira, instead of fighting it, could use his slick submission entries to threaten Gamrot.

Oliveira could bait Gamrot into a ground exchange where he has the advantage. A perfect example of this would be if Gamrot secures a takedown and lands in a dominant position, perhaps half guard. Oliveira would not simply try to stand up. Instead, he would look to set up an armbar or a triangle choke from his back.

Gamrot’s grappling defense is strong, but Oliveira’s submissions are among the best in the UFC. Oliveira could also use his striking to set up a finish. While Gamrot’s striking has improved, Oliveira has shown he has one-shot knockout power. He could land a clean left hook or a powerful knee in a scramble that hurts Gamrot.

For Gamrot to win, he must rely on his wrestling, pressure, and cardio to break Oliveira. The strategy would be to negate Oliveira’s submissions. An example of this would be for Gamrot to land a takedown and immediately secure a position where Oliveira’s legs are controlled and his arms are tied up.

The fight could also be won on the feet through sheer volume and pace. While Oliveira is the more dangerous striker, Gamrot’s relentless pressure and high-output striking could overwhelm a returning Oliveira.