Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 313

Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev will close the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.

Here’s my Blaydes vs. Kuniev prediction.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Odds, Prediction

Projection: Curtis Blaydes (70.2%)

After two tries on the Contender Series, Rizvan Kuniev will make his UFC debut on Saturday, in a highly shallow heavyweight division that now only features around 30 active fighters.

The division’s lack of bodies explains the strange matchmaking, as Blaydes has served as a title challenger fighting atop the division, and an upset win could instantly move Kuniev into the division’s top five.

Rizvan is light on his feet – as a former Wushu Sanda practitioner — but he’s the smaller man in the fight (4″ reach discrepancy) and likely to end up on his back against Blaydes — who has averaged nearly 11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes inside the octagon.

Blaydes has a wonky chin, but those five knockout losses have arguably come against the four most powerful punchers in the division’s history (Francis Ngannou 2x, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich, Tom Aspinall).

Still, after his loss to Lewis, Blaydes fought extremely tentatively against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and he was dominated in the majority of each of his past three fights.

I project value on the underdog, Kuniev (projected +236, listed +270), whom I’d bet to +250 – but I may wait until fight day to add a ticket; his line has only climbed after opening near +250.

Additionally, I show value on this Heavyweight bout ending inside the distance (projected -251, listed -163) and on Kuniev winning by KO (projected +460, listed +650) or inside the distance (projected +394, listed +500).

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-166, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
• Wait for the peak price on Rizvan Kuniev (ideally +300; bet at +250 or better)