Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 319 (Saturday, August 16)

Check out the Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds

Here’s my Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick, Prediction

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous pressure boxer — with seven of eight UFC wins by Round 1 knockout — but he has a notable grappling deficiency (five of six UFC losses by submission) which he has attempted to fix by moving full-time to team Fighting Nerds — alongside former opponent and main event backup fighter Caio Bollalho, and the continually improving Rodolfo Vieira.

Gerald Meerschaert III (“GM3) holds the UFC middleweight record for submissions (11) — and is tied with Demian Maia for third most in promotional history.

However, nine of those 11 submissions have come in the second or third round — GM3 is typically losing minutes early before taking advantage of a tiring opponent, flipping the momentum, and closing the show.

To be clear, I think there is value on GM3 to win by submission (projected +290) or inside the distance (projected +259), and his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) are worth consideration in any mathup, in addition to a live bet after Round 1.

However, I think he’s going to have to go through hell to make it that far against Oleksiejczuk — the younger and faster man who will close distance aggressively, cut off the cage, and rip combinations to the head and body to back GM3 against the fence.

Oleksiejczuk – a former Light Heavyweight — looks in much better shape physically after spending a whole camp in Brazil, and I’d expect a career-best performance from him in this fight (and career-best cardio if Meerschaert survives and the fight extends) after deliberately working to improve his anti-grappling.

Given the binary nature of this matchup, I like the Under 1.5 Rounds (-125), or would parlay the fight to end inside the distance (projected -510, listed -350).

Additionally, I show value on Michal by KO/TKO (projected -119, listed +100), or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245), or you can include his moneyline in an SGP with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+135 at BetRivers).

Projection: Oleksiejczuk (68%)

Sean’s Picks

• Under 1.5 Rounds (-127, 0.25u) at BetRivers (bet to -150)
• SGP: Michal Oleksiejczuk and Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +115)
• Michael Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245, 0.1u) at BallyBet