Pereira Vs. Aspinall – How Does It Play Out?

Alex Pereira has reacted to UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall’s comments when he said he had favorable match-ups before facing Magomed Ankalaev, as we look at how a fight between them could play out. 

Pereira is set to rematch Ankalaev at UFC 320 this Saturday, aiming to avenge his March unanimous decision loss at UFC 313 where he lost his light heavyweight title. As the rematch looms, Aspinall said Pereira had benefited from “favorable matchups” before his first encounter with Ankalaev. Aspinall went on to suggest that Ankalaev is simply a “bad matchup.”

Prior to the Ankalaev loss, Pereira had beaten Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Jamahal Hill, Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree Jr. in a five-fight win streak, making him one of the most in-form fighters. Pereira could not understand Aspinall’s assessment given he had come from a kickboxing background, making his transition into the UFC much harder.

“We’re talking about the biggest organization in the world. I’m a guy who comes from kickboxing. I had no grappling experience. (I had) little experience in MMA. We’re talking about the highest level of the sport. If you were to put the worst guy in the UFC against me, I would be at a disadvantage (in MMA), so that makes no sense,” Pereira said 

The Approach

Aspinall’s winning strategy would be centered on pressure and takedowns. Aspinall is one of the fastest and most explosive heavyweights ever, holding the UFC record for shortest average fight time (2:02), with 14 of his 15 wins coming via finish and most of those in the first round. His grappling, which includes submission victories over Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski, presents the single biggest threat to Pereira If Aspinall can secure an early double-leg or a body lock takedown, the fight immediately shifts in his favor. 

The tactical plan for Pereira is to maintain distance, control the center, and land his power strikes. Pereira’s game is built on patience and power, utilizing his low kicks to chip away at his opponent’s base and setting up his devastating signature left hook and high kicks. To nullify Aspinall’s takedown threat, Pereira would need to utilize his size, reach (79″ to Aspinall’s 78″), and cage positioning. Pereira’s best offensive chance lies in capitalizing on Aspinall’s aggressive blitz, potentially landing an early “lights out” shot, as he did against Sean Strickland and Jamahal Hill.