Rinya Nakamura Looks to Reignite His Prospect Status: UFC Fight Night Breakdown, Odds and Picks

Rinya Nakamura was once a highly touted Japanese wrestling phenom, but the hype around him has died down since his UFC Debut in 2023. He looks to reclaim that hype against a tough night at the office in Brady Hiestand 

Fight Breakdown

Rinya Nakamura burst onto the scene with his dominance throughout the UFC’s first Road to the UFC tournament where he bulldozed through any and all competition on his journey to the UFC, and then immediately turned heads when he debuted with a 33 seconds knockout of Toshiomi Kazama to win the tournament in 2023.

After that though, his inability to find the exciting finishes he found prior as well as a 2025 setback loss to Muin Gafurov ended up putting a damper on the once promising Japanese Olympic Wrestler’s status as a prospect. He ended his 2025 with his first finish in 4 fights when he dispatched of Nathan Fletcher in just a minute, but has now been out of the Octagon for over a year.

Nakamura has awesome wrestling as a result of his Olympic background, and while he is much more focused on position over submission, he has shown a litany of different submission threats despite only having one (a Keylock during the Road to the UFC tournament) on his record. Nakamura’s wrestling has often given his natural power the ability to shine on the feet, far from a clean striker and most certainly not defensively responsible, a lot of that is masked by his legit one shot power, willingness to trade and that constant threat of a takedown. Nakamura has all of the tools to climb the rankings at 135, it will simply be a matter of how much he has improved in this year off and his ability to put it all together.

Brady “Bam Bam” Hiestand is one of those rare 135ers that constantly poses a finishing threat. In his 8 wins he has 6 via finish, evenly split with 3 subs and 3 knockouts. Bam Bam is a much more polished grappler than he is a striker, as he himself stated he came into the UFC with “terrible striking”. Hiestand almost walked away from the sport of MMA after multiple injuries have kept him sidelined since 2024, but the 27 year old poses an interesting threat to Nakamura’s rise to the top as the refreshed Hiestand was once an intriguing prospect of his own before he ran into said injury troubles.

Hiestand isn’t an Olympian, but he has true MMA grappling with a much more diverse submission profile and ground and pound built in, not just a control base. Hiestand will need to lean on his defensive wrestling as well as his self-proclaimed improved striking in this affair, but the truth is after such a long layoff there’s more questions than answers when looking at Brady Hiestand and what he could look like Saturday Night.

Pick:

The oddsmakers are weary of what Hiestand could look like after his injury riddled layoff, placing him as a hefty +300 underdog, and I tend to agree with Vegas in this case. Brady was far from a blue chipper when he was active, and now that he returns against one of the more formidable wrestlers that 135 has to offer, it feels like a really steep hill for Hiestand to climb in what he would hope to be a triumphant return to the Octagon.

Nakamura has the power and wrestling advantage, and as long as he doesn’t give up his neck or eat an early shot in the stand up, he will easily win minutes and look levels above Hiestand on the ground. I’d love to see if Rinya Nakamura can find a finish in this contest to string together 2 in a row, and reclaim his rightful spot as a fun prospect in a division full of them at 135. 

Official Pick: Rinya Nakamura by FINISH (+100)