UFC Fight Night – Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus: Preview & Betting Tips

The upcoming UFC middleweight clash between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus is an intriguing matchup, because of what it represents for Gastelum.

Once regarded as one of the top contenders at 185 pounds, Gastelum (20-10, 1 NC) now finds himself facing an opponent far outside the elite. This fight is a clear step down in competition for him, and it raises questions about where his career is headed. 

For Stoltzfus (16-7), meanwhile, this is the biggest opportunity of his career to date with a chance to make his mark by defeating a fighter with name value and years of experience at the highest level.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum – Odds 1.40

Record: 20-10, 1 NC

Age: 33

Height: 5ft9

Reach: 71”

Weight: Middleweight

Stance: Southpaw

Dustin Stoltzfus – Odds 2.88 

Record: 16-7

Age: 33

Height: 6ft

Reach: 75”

Weight: Middleweight

Stance: Orthodox

Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus: Analysis 

Kelvin Gastelum is a guy who has fought a who’s who of the middleweight division over the years, including Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier, and Chris Curtis. At his best, Gastelum is a sharp southpaw boxer with fast hands, excellent level changes, and the ability to push the pace for three hard rounds. His durability has long been one of his calling cards, as he’s absorbed tremendous punishment in wars with top contenders and kept moving forward. However, it’s difficult to even think that this version of Gastelum still exists. 

In his last few appearances, he has often looked flat-footed and hesitant, struggling to pull the trigger. His output has dipped, and he sometimes falls into long stretches of inactivity that cost him rounds.

Stoltzfus may not have the high-profile track record of Gastelum, but he has been steadily improving with each UFC appearance. Stoltzfus is a well-rounded fighter who can blend striking and grappling effectively, but he lacks power and has been hurt badly himself.

Gastelum vs Stoltzfus: Prediction & Betting Tips

Gastelum has the edge in experience by a wide margin. He’s been in five-round main events, he’s battled champions, and he’s shown the mental toughness needed to compete at the very top. If Gastelum falls into a low-output rhythm, Stoltzfus can capitalise by landing just enough on the feet and mixing in takedowns to edge rounds.

Ultimately, this bout comes down to which version of Kelvin Gastelum shows up. If the sharp, aggressive contender returns, he should win decisively. But if he fights the way he has in recent outings, Stoltzfus is capable of pulling off the upset.

The momentum is against Gastelum here, but this almost feels to me like Gastelum is taking this fight because he believes it’s an easy win so he can try to get some of that momentum back. I’m taking the more experienced and the more durable fighter in this one. Kelvin Gastelum moneyline at odds of 1.40.