UFC Perth Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets for Saturday, May 2

UFC Perth Prop Projections

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun

Billy Ward, Staff Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 a.m. ET

While Gerald Meerschaert — henceforth known as “GM3” — is tied for third on the UFC’s all-time submission wins list, he’s almost certainly No. 1 in terms of the percentage of his wins that came via tapout. He’s 12-13 in his decade-long UFC run, with 11 of those wins from a submission, and one via knockout.

I often wonder if GM3 regrets not going for a quick “club and sub” in that fight in order to keep his rate at 100%. It was fairly early in his UFC career, so he almost certainly didn’t plan on winning exclusively via submission for the next eight years, but it’s an interesting question. Regardless, the man is really good at one thing, and not much else.

He’s the biggest underdog on the card against Jacob Malkoun, in a fight that seems like it was put together to get a win for a local fighter. However, the big issue for late-stage Meerschaert has been his chin and durability, and Malkoun isn’t well-suited to exploit that. Malkoun has just one knockdown and one knockout in his UFC career, which came when Andre Petroski knocked himself out by shooting into Malkoun’s hip.

Malkoun is also a grappler, averaging nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career. If he chooses to grapple with a non-concussed Meerschaert, that could give the veteran a chance to pull off one more submission for old time’s sake.

The likelier option is Malkoun uses his superior grappling to keep things on the feet, but that’s far from a guarantee. It’s also not a big problem for the bet I’m making on this fight. That’s because I’m taking GM3 in the “submission only” market on DraftKings (under the Fight Lines tab). Much like the “finish only” or “decision only” markets, this bet refunds if the fight ends via any other method.

The fact that GM3 is +500 in that market feels like a massively off line, since roughly 92% of his UFC wins have come that way, compared to 0% for Malkoun. The likeliest outcome is this bet gets refunded, but it’s a fun, low-risk/high-reward sprinkle that we can feel good rooting for.

Pick:Gerald Meerschaert Submission Only Moneyline +500 (DraftKings)

Brando Pericic vs. Shamil Gaziev

Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET 

Brando Pericic is known for his legendary power at the City Kickboxing gym; Israel Adesanya has said he’s the hardest puncher he’s ever faced, which may be a dig at his rival, Alex Pereira, but is also a testament to Pericic’s potentially special level of athleticism.

He’s the bigger man (4″ taller, 3″ reach advantage) than Shamil Gaziev and has shown improved defensive grappling in each of his fights. City Kickboxing coach Eugene Bareman gets a lot of criticism for his top fighters plateauing later in their careers, but he instills a competent level of defensive grappling in all of his strikers; they know what to do to escape from bottom position after takedowns. And at 23 years old, Pericic is seemingly ahead of schedule in terms of rounding out his skillset for the heavyweight division.

Gaziev could have a grappling path in this fight, but I don’t think he’ll be able to control Pericic for sustained stretches, and I’d expect “The Balkan Bear” to eventually scramble back to his feet and land the cleaner, harder punches on an opponent with questionable durability, less than half a year removed from a bad knockout loss against Waldo Cortes Acosta.

Moreover, while I’m typically hesitant to back a fighter with an early-finisher archetype on the moneyline — as they may struggle in an extended, competitive fight — Gaziev has shown poor cardio himself, specifically in his loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

I projected Brando Pericic as a near 60% favorite in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline to around -135.

Pick: Brando Pericic -115 (Caesars)