Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Sleepers and Fades for Phoenix

Blaney is the far-best driver in the NextGen era at Phoenix Raceway. Blaney averages a 5.8-placed finish with one win and seven top-5 finishes in those eight races. Few racers are as good as Blaney on ovals, and so, he will be a big threat even if he qualifies outside of the top 10.

Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Hamlin makes a bitter return to Phoenix after a last-minute caution destroyed his Cup Series Title chances last fall. Nonetheless, Hamlin had the perfect package with the clear best car at Phoenix just months ago. There is zero reason for this car to be bad this week, as they seemingly had it perfected.

Hamlin is one of those elite oval drivers. He has not won at Phoenix in the NextGen era, but Hamlin averages a 7.1-place start and a 10th-place finish across four top-10s in eight races. This is expected to be among the best cars Hamlin has ever had here.

Mid-Tier Picks

Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Chastain is quietly one of the best racers at Phoenix in the NextGen era. He has one victory here in eight starts, and a total of four top-10's. The Trackhouse Racing team has looked very strong in performance over the first three races of the season. With Chastain having succeeded here and the crew being familiar, they should field a strong Chevrolet. The suspension of his crew members likely matters little.

Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford

Ford has looked strong at Phoenix, with Blaney and Joey Logano achieving three of the eight NextGen era wins at the track. Berry has subtly been an elite driver at this same track. In five starts here, Berry has three top-10 finishes and an average gain of six spots from starting position (20th) to finish position (14th). If Penske and Wood Brothers prepare Berry with a great car, he has what it takes to level with the likes of Blaney, Logano, Hamlin, and the other ringers.

Longshot Picks

Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

Trackhouse Racing booted Suarez after 2025, but he has come back with the No. 7 team this season to look quite strong. In three races thus far this season, Suarez averages a 14.3-placed finish with one top-5. At ovals, Suarez does quite well as a more experienced driver. Despite an average start of 21st at Phoenix, Suarez has an average finish of 16th, including two top-10s.

To finish in the top-10 on a 25% basis is solid for the likes of Suarez, a low-tiered driver in perception. If Spire gives him another bullet of a car this week, a top-10 is well in reach with top-5 upside.

Noah Gragson, No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford

Gragson is averaging a 15th-place finish to begin the season. In the driver standings, Gragson sits 18th. He is not doing amazing, but he is definitely not doing as badly as he did in 2025.

Gragson's performances at Phoenix are not that bad. He only averages a 22nd-placed start, but he finishes above that at 21st on average. This may be the best car that Gragson has driven in the Cup Series to date. Though in a different car, Gragson does have one victory, three top-5's, and five top-10's at Phoenix in eight O'Reilly Auto Parts Series starts at Phoenix. He will know the lines to run; he just needs a good-enough car.