Is Toyota Unstoppable in the NASCAR Playoffs?

Let’s cut to the chase. The biggest story of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs isn’t just a story; it’s a statement, and it’s being written in bold letters by Toyota. Just look at the first two races at Darlington and Gateway. It’s been a sea of Camrys at the front of the pack, and frankly, it feels like we’re watching a different race when a Toyota isn’t leading.

We’ve seen two races, and both times, a Joe Gibbs Racing driver has taken the checkered flag. First, it was Chase Briscoe, and then Denny Hamlin followed it up. But wins are only part of the picture. Dive into the stats, and it gets even more staggering. Toyota makes up just five of the 16 playoff cars, but they’ve secured six of the ten possible top-five finishes. Think about that for a second. More than half the time, a Toyota finishes in the top five. They’ve also bagged 12 of the 20 possible top-ten spots. It’s a clinic.

A Dominant Start for the Toyota Playoff Drivers

The five drivers currently flying the Toyota banner are Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick, all of whom are putting on a masterclass. Their average finish so far is an incredible 7.9. How does that stack up against the competition? Well, Ford’s playoff contenders are averaging a finish of 19.0, and the Chevy camp is right there with them at 19.5. It’s not just a gap; it’s a chasm.

When you look at advanced metrics, the story gets even clearer. The Toyota squad boasts a combined Driver Rating of 108.6. To put that in perspective, since NASCAR started tracking this in 2005, that’s one of the most dominant starts to a postseason we have ever witnessed from a single manufacturer. They are on a historic tear, reminding old-timers of the kind of runs that legends are made of.

You’d have to rewind the clock to 2009 to find a start this impressive. That year, the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets, led by Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson, were an unstoppable force. They swept the first two races and just kept on winning. It was a legendary performance that ended with a 1-2-3 finish in the standings. That’s the kind of rarefied air Toyota is breathing right now. It’s the kind of dominance that makes you wonder if anyone else even has a shot.

Can Toyota Maintain This Unbelievable Pace?

So, the million-dollar question is. Can they keep it up? History tells us that a blistering start doesn’t always guarantee a championship. Sometimes, teams peak too early. But this year feels different. There’s a certain electricity around the Toyota camp. Take Chase Briscoe. We saw him heating up all summer, quietly becoming one of the best drivers in the series. And then there’s Denny Hamlin.

At 44, he’s the elder statesman, but he’s driving with the fire of a rookie trying to prove himself. He’s been knocking on the door of a championship his entire career, and you can feel the hunger. Bubba Wallace is having a career year, driving with the confidence we haven’t seen before. And you can never, ever count out Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick, who are always a threat to make it to the Championship 4.

The forecast models, which crunch the numbers and simulate the playoffs thousands of times, are all pointing in one direction. They give a Toyota driver a 51% chance of hoisting the championship trophy this year. Hamlin is the current favorite, but it could be any one of them. With only about a third of the cars in the playoff field, they have a better-than-even chance of winning it all. That’s just mind-boggling.

Will Bristol Be a Pivotal Turning Point For Toyota?

It’s been five long years since Toyota last won a championship. They’ve been close, always competitive, but never quite able to seal the deal. This year, something has shifted. The drivers are firing on all cylinders, the cars are rockets, and the teams are executing flawlessly. It’s not just a hot streak. It’s the culmination of years of hard work, grit, and a burning desire to be the best. These first two races haven’t just been wins; they’ve been a declaration of intent. Toyota is here to dominate, and right now, it feels like nothing and no one can stand in its way.