NASCAR Power Rankings: Who is the Favorite Heading Into COTA?

Always a threat to win at road courses, Michael McDowell is someone to watch this weekend. McDowell took a bit of offense at all of the praise that Shane van Gisbergen received last season. Now, he has to go and do something about it.

McDowell has won a road course before when he was at Front Row Motorsports. I'm not sure he can win this weekend, but McDowell will be vying for a top spot.

8. Chris Buescher - RFK Racing

Mr. Top-10 at the road courses. Chris Buescher is almost allergic to finishing outside of the top third of these races in the Next Gen car. He's even beaten SVG head-to-head on a road course in the Cup Series.

I'd like to see how Buescher qualifies before making any declarations. But it would be strange for him not to be one of the top-10 drivers this weekend.

7. Chase Briscoe - Joe Gibbs Racing

I'm not sure how many people knew it before his performances last year on road courses, but Chase Briscoe knows how to turn right. There is something about these former dirt racing guys and road courses that somehow...works?

Briscoe went toe-to-toe with SVG last season at Sonoma for a little bit. He's really upped his game at these tracks since joining JGR. Why not Briscoe?

6. Chase Elliott - Hendrick Motorsports

While he has a history of being a great road course racer, Chase Elliott is just figuring out how to do it in the Next Gen car. We saw some of that start to happen at Mexico City last season.

Elliott was also really strong at Sonoma. It would be silly to dismiss his P4 finish at COTA last season, too. He's had success at the track, and won the 2021 race there. Can he get his first Next Gen road course win? I think it is possible.

5. Christopher Bell - Joe Gibbs Racing

The first goal for Christopher Bell this week, stay out of Kyle Busch's way. Those two have a history at this track together. But in all seriousness, Bell is a talented road course racer and is going to be a factor this Sunday.

Bell was victorious last year at COTA. He was the only driver not named van Gisbergen to win a road course in the Cup Series for 2025. Top-5 performances at Mexico City, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the Roval helped round out a strong road course portfolio last season.

4. Connor Zilisch - Trackhouse Racing

The rookie. Connor Zilisch started last year's Cup Series race at COTA. However, he ended the day early when he was involved in a wreck. His rookie campaign has started with growing pains, to say the least. P33 and P30 in the first two weeks, not ideal.

Zilisch only has the one Cup Series road course start, thanks to his broken collarbone at the Glen last year. Everyone is waiting to see what this young driver can do this time around.

3. William Byron - Hendrick Motorsports

It has become normal to see William Byron at the front of these road course races. He's good on every track, but has a bit of an edge over many others on these tracks. Byron won the 2024 race and is looking to get another.

For the first time ever, Byron will go to COTA without a win in his pocket. Of course, this race has moved up the schedule more and more since its debut in 2021. Since 2021, Byron has won at least one race within the first five weeks of the season. Is it his week this week?

2. Tyler Reddick - 23XI Racing

Not only is Tyler Reddick riding a two-race win streak to start the season, but he's also one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series. Reddick won in 2023, his first win for 23XI Racing. Momentum is a real thing, even if this track is nothing like the first two on the schedule.

Reddick is riding a high and that should concern the competition. He's already 40 points ahead of 2nd-place in points, Bubba Wallace. The gap from Wallace to 16-th place is 41 points. So, a nice lead for the 45 team that they want to see grow.

1. Shane van Gisbergen - Trackhouse Racing

Of course, the road course king. Six wins in his NASCAR career, and they are all going left and right. Last season, COTA was the only road/street course race he didn't win. We will see if that trend continues, but I doubt it.

The rest of the field will have to be aggressive while racing against Shane van Gisbergen. You have to take every chance you get to disrupt him, every chance you can get to make a pass (if you get a chance), and hope that maybe the 97 car runs into mechanical trouble along the way. Maybe a bad pit stop? The point is, SVG is the guy to beat.