Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

NASCAR Racing Insights predicts finishing order of Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire

Originally posted on 5 GOATs | By Jonathan Howard | Last updated Sep 19, 2025 4:25 PM ET

This weekend, the NASCAR Playoffs Round of 12 begins with the Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Playoff drivers can either get a head start on the field or fall behind quickly this week.

While New Hampshire isn’t the most exciting race track, the soft short-track tires will be on the cars this weekend. Earlier this season, the same tires were used at Richmond. So, we could see a different kind of race.

The data and analytics folks at NASCAR Racing Insights have put the numbers together. So, we have the finishing order prediction according to the stats. During the race, a lot will happen between green and checkered flags. Let’s get into it all before qualifying and practice tomorrow:

Finishing Position	Driver
1.	Christopher Bell
2.	Denny Hamlin
3.	Ryan Blaney
4.	Kyle Larson
5.	Chase Elliott
6.	Joey Logano
7.	William Byron
8.	Chase Briscoe
9.	Brad Keselowski
10.	Tyler Reddick
11.	Bubba Wallace
12.	Josh Berry
13.	Chris Buescher
14.	Alex Bowman
15.	Carson Hocevar
16.	Ross Chastain
17.	Austin Cindric
18.	Ty Gibbs
19.	Ryan Preece
20.	Austin Dillon
21.	Daniel Suárez
22.	AJ Allmendinger
23.	Erik Jones
24.	Michael McDowell
25.	John Hunter Nemechek
26.	Kyle Busch
27.	Justin Haley
28.	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
29.	Todd Gilliland
30.	Cole Custer
31.	Noah Gragson
32.	Ty Dillon
33.	Zane Smith
34.	Shane van Gisbergen
35.	Riley Herbst
36.	Cody Ware

What drops off the page at me is Kyle Busch. Playoff drivers aside, it is astounding that Busch is predicted to finish P26. After all, he is a three-time winner at New Hampshire. Then there is Austin Dillon. He is predicted to finish the worst among the playoff drivers remaining at P20. RCR is just not in a great place right now.

So, it looks like this is going to be a Joe Gibbs and Team Penske race. Joey Logano is looking like the sneaky contender that he has been in the last few years. Could he win the Mobil 1 301 and move on to the Round of 8 with weeks to prepare?

While the Toyotas are surely going to be good on Sunday, it is a big week for Hendrick, too. Last week, Alex Bowman was eliminated from the playoffs.

When he’s good, he’s good, but Chase Elliott could find himself out of the championship running if he isn’t careful this round. Even Kyle Larson and William Byron have been lackluster lately. So, it’s time to put up or shut up for HMS.

Last week was not the same short track race that we will see this week at New Hampshire. So, don’t expect that. Still, I’m optimistic about the overall product.

During the NASCAR Playoffs, drivers have to be at their best. When the Mobil 1 301 is over, we are going to have winners and losers.

This article first appeared on 5 GOATs and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: