Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin set for epic NASCAR title fight

Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin have been far and away the two best NASCAR Cup Series drivers in 2026. 

Reddick, who won five of the first nine races of the season, has led the series standings since the outset of the campaign and has yet to finish outside the top 15. He built a massive points lead after his white-hot start, which was only cut to under 100 points on Sunday. 

Hamlin, meanwhile, hasn't finished worse than 16th after his crash in the season-opening Daytona 500. He earned his second victory of the season Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway and is second in the standings, 97 points behind Reddick. 

But there is reason to think that, even as consistent as Reddick has been, Hamlin could catch him for the regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the Chase over the next 12 races. Hamlin has gained 32 points on Reddick over the last two races and would need to beat him by an average of eight points over the next 12 events to draw even. 

The possibility of anyone catching Reddick earlier in the season seemed ludicrous, given how large the gap from him to the rest of the field was. But Hamlin has earned one more stage point than Reddick this season and has been consistently faster as of late, even if Reddick is yet to truly slip. 

Since Hamlin first slid into second in the standings after Kansas, he's earned an average of 41.6 points per race. In that same five-race stretch, Reddick has averaged 40. 

Can Denny Hamlin beat Tyler Reddick?

Hamlin has at least shown the ability to square up with Reddick and has arguably had more raw speed this season than the driver of the No. 45, even if he doesn't have the wins to show for it. Had things gone slightly differently for Hamlin at Martinsville, Texas and Charlotte, he could easily have five victories to his name and be closer to Reddick in points. 

Regardless of how the final 12 races of the regular season shake out, it's clear that Reddick and Hamlin are NASCAR's top dogs. Hamlin is ahead of third-place Ryan Blaney by 77 points, and Hamlin and Reddick are the only two drivers with seven top fives this year. 

The points reset that occurs when the Chase begins at Darlington in September will bunch the 16 Chase drivers up once more, with the No. 1 seed being only 100 points up on 16th. Perhaps more importantly, second place will only be 25 points behind first — a big difference to be sure, but not compared to the gap that Reddick has had on the field for much of the year. 

Even if Hamlin is stuck in second when the regular season is, seeing the 10-race Chase play out with only a 25-point gap between him and Reddick at its commencement will make the final 10 races of the 2026 NASCAR season appointment television regardless of the myriad other storylines that will be swirling around the garage.