2025-2026 NBA Breakout Predictions

Despite entering his fourth year in the NBA, it still feels like Shaedon Sharpe is a bit of an unknown. It feels like he has always been injured, but outside of missing a large chunk of his second season, he has been relatively healthy. He has played in 184 of 246 possible games thus far. So why does it feel like Sharpe is still unknown, and more importantly, why is he set to breakout in the upcoming NBA season?

To answer the first part of the question, it is largely because there is never any noise surrounding Sharpe. He entered the league as somewhat of an unknown, as he was drafted 7th overall out of Kentucky, but he never actually played in Lexington. In his first season in the NBA, he started just 15 games and averaged 10 points per game on a bad Trailblazers team.

Entering Sharpe’s second season, all of the noise in Portland was about the Damian Lillard trade and the drafting of Scoot Henderson. There was so much going on with the Blazers, no one seemed to care about his upcoming season. Unfortunately, it never got off the ground as he played in just 32 games due to injury.

Last season was undoubtedly the best of Sharpe’s career, as he averaged 18.5 points per game and played in 72 of 82 games, but no one seemed to notice. Now, entering his fourth season in the NBA, more eyes appear to be focused on Sharpe, and a new four-year deal worth $90 million certainly will help with that. None of this has to do with why he is going to break out this year.

The reason why Sharpe is set to erupt this season is because of the current roster. At this time last season, Anfernee Simmons and Scoot Henderson were set to be the lead ball handlers and shot creators in Portland. Now, the former is in Boston, as he was traded for Jrue Holiday, and the latter is recovering from a torn hamstring he suffered during the off-season. Holiday will play a big role on offense, but likely more as a playmaker, as he isn’t the same scorer he once was. Players such as Jerami Grant and Deni Avdija are more than capable of scoring the ball, but they profile as secondary shot creators and ball handlers.

That all means that Sharpe is set up for success this season. He should have the ball in his hands more than ever, and that is a good thing. He is just a career 33% shooter from deep, meaning he isn’t meant to be a spot-up shooter. He is a dynamic athlete who wants to get downhill and attack the basket. The more he has the ball in his hands, the more opportunities he will have to attack the basket and put pressure on the defense.

Henderson will return at some point, and he will have the ball in his hands a good amount, but Sharpe will have every chance to run the show in Portland. It would be a shocker if he does not put up career highs in most major statistical categories, given the role he will have this season.

2. Nikola Jovic, F, Miami Heat

It feels like the number one thing that Miami Heat fans are looking forward to this season is the continued growth of Nikola Jovic. There has been excitement regarding their former first-round pick seemingly since he arrived. While he has improved every year, this feels like the year he pops.

Jovic is a 6’10 point forward, who has yet to find a real role in Miami. He has thrived when leading the second unit as a ball handler, but when playing with the starters, he has had a hard time finding a role. This season should change that. This team needs to get out and run, and there is no player more equipped to help the Heat push the pace than Jovic. While nothing is certain, he is expected to be a starter and function as a secondary playmaker with Tyler Herro set to miss time.

The Heat have been very high on Jovic, and they rewarded him with a 4-year extension worth over $60 million this offseason. Miami is counting on him to be a key contributor this season and moving forward. Erik Spoelstra seems comfortable letting Jovic handle the ball, and that will only open things up for himself and the entire offense. With a bigger role this season, the Heat’s former first-round pick should be in for a career year.

3. Matas Buzelis, F, Chicago Bulls

There isn’t a player from the 2024 NBA draft better suited to take over control of their team than Matas Buzelis. The Chicago Bulls are in desperate need of a franchise player, and the runway for last year’s first-round pick to be one is wide open.

It took some time for Buzelis to adjust to the NBA last year. Once he was given a large and more consistent role in the rotation, he flashed immediately. He averaged 13.3 points per game over the last three months of the NBA season, and a career-high of 31 points during that stretch. Buzelis showcased his entire skillset and showed what made him a lottery pick.

In five pre-season games this year, Buzelis not only picked up where he left off, but he clearly made major strides over the off-season. He has averaged 17.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game, while shooting 57.4% from the field and 39.3% from deep over the pre-season. While it is only the pre-season, Buzelis showed that he was in the gym all summer and that he is ready to take things over for his hometown team.

While Coby White and Josh Giddey are really nice players, they aren’t franchise changers, and Chicago is in need of one. Buzelis may not be one either, but he has the upside to potentially become one. If this off-season is a glimpse of what to expect in the future, Bulls fans should be very excited.

Other Breakout Candidates

The three players listed above aren’t exactly viewed as All-Star candidates, but they are all in perfect positions to thrive this season. Other players are also in great positions to break out, but not in the same way as the top three players.

Jarace Walker has had a hard time finding a spot in the Indiana Pacers’ rotation. With Myles Turner leaving in free agency, he should see consistent minutes this year.

The Minnesota Timberwolves need someone to step up and fill the void left by Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Terrance Shannon Jr. is a perfect fit. He had a strong rookie season, and he dominated the summer league. He is beyond ready for more minutes this year.

Brice Sensabaugh has looked like one of the best shooters in the world since summer league. He should make a major impact as a floor spacer for the Utah Jazz this year.

Cam Whitmore showed all the talent in the world while playing with the Houston Rockets, but there wasn’t a spot in the rotation for him. Now with the Washington Wizards, he should get every opportunity to play through mistakes and grow as a player, and that should help him fulfill his potential.

End Of My NBA Breakout Predictions Rant

Just like there is every NBA season, there will be breakout players. That doesn’t necessarily mean surprise All-Stars, but there will be players who make massive strides in their development. Sharpe, Jovic, and Buzelis are all in great spots to break out and become primary pieces for the respective franchises for years to come. Walker, Shannon, Sensabaugh, and Whitmore are all in positions to make impacts off the bench and become core rotation players for their teams in the future.

A breakout doesn’t mean a player becomes an All-Star; it just means they took another leap in their development, and that can happen in a multitude of ways. These players are all in favorable positions to make those leaps, but there are going to be others who make notable leaps this NBA season as well.

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