Assessing Kawhi Leonard’s MVP Odds: Can He Win?

The 2025-26 NBA season has less than 20 games left, which means award season is right around the corner. With Kawhi Leonard's unbelievable 45-point explosion against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night, there is no better time than now to highlight his case for the league's MVP award.

This season, Leonard has been averaging a ridiculous 28.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.5 stocks (steals + blocks). Putting up these numbers is impressive as is, but becomes even more impressive when paired with his 50 percent shooting from the field, 38 percent shooting from beyond the arc, and 90 percent from the free-throw line.

Like the other leading MVP candidates, Leonard has been the Clippers’ number one option. What separates him, however, is that he’s also been options two, three, four, and five. The Clippers offense is Kawhi's offense. Everything goes through him. Whenever the Clippers need a bucket, the other four players just shift their eyes to Leonard. Every time he steps off the court, the offense looks discombobulated, and that's only gotten worse following the trade deadline, where Los Angeles' goal was to get younger.

Comparing Kawhi Leonard's Supporting Cast to Other MVP Candidates

Leonard has had half a season with James Harden and a couple of games with Darius Garland, who is still rehabbing an injury, yet he’s helped drag the Clippers back from a 6–21 start. Compare that to other top candidates like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Nikola Jokic has a super-charged Jamal Murray. Victor Wembanyama has De'Aaron Fox. Luka Doncic has LeBron James and Austin Reaves.

The only two players with supporting casts remotely as weak as Leonard's are Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown (who now has Jayson Tatum back).

Among the other MVP candidates, only two players have a better on-off rating than Leonard, according to Databallr, and one of them is only 0.1 points better. If you didn't guess by now, the number one on-off player out of the candidates is Jokic, and the other is Wembanyama. But still, for Leonard to be third on this list with an on-off of +12.6 is just another impressive stat that should put him in the MVP conversation.

What Is Needed for Kawhi to Win the MVP

I'd be lying if I didn't say that a lot would have to go right for Leonard to reach the MVP. That said, it's still not impossible. If the Clippers can fight their way out of the Play-In and into a top-six seed during this final stretch, that will surely give him a stronger case. With LA having the third-lightest remaining strength of schedule, only playing four of their 17 games against top-ten teams, they could really go on a tear in this final stretch, especially with Leonard playing at this level.

But he can't do it all, and that brings me to the second thing the Clippers will need to help him solidify his case: a healthy Garland. If the last three games are an indicator of what's coming, Garland is getting really close to playing heavy minutes for this team. With Garland handling more of the offensive load, the Clippers can win games more comfortably and allow Leonard to stay fresh.

Right now, for many people, the MVP is a two-player race, between the same two guys it's been between for the last couple of years now in SGA and Jokic. However, there’s a scenario in which neither player qualifies. That is because of the NBA's 65-game rule, which prohibits players who played fewer than 65 games from being eligible for awards. With Jokic missing 16 games already, he can only miss one more game the rest of the way, and SGA can only miss five.

Obviously, I would never wish an injury on anyone, but given the nature of the playoff race, especially for Denver, Jokic is going to be asked to play a lot, which could take a toll on him. Wemby has already missed 14 games, and Doncic has missed 12, so those two are also walking a fine line.

I know to some it may be unreasonable to include Leonard's name in the MVP race, but if the Clippers manage to climb out of the Play-In and into a guaranteed playoff spot, the conversation will have to shift. When one player is responsible for nearly everything his team does on both ends of the court while keeping up elite production through midseason roster overhauls, his case becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.