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Giannis Antetokounmpo breaks down turning point as Victor Wembanyama took over in the Spurs rout of the Bucks 2 Jan 15, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward/center Victor Wembanyama (1) fouls Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the first half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Bucks’ draft lottery reality is both terrifying and uplifting

Originally posted on WI Sports Heroics | By John Sbisa | Last updated Jan 16, 2026 11:36 AM ET

2025-26 has not been the season the Milwaukee Bucks envisioned. They’re 17-24, 2.5 games out of the play-in. They are coming off back-to-back losses by a combined 54 points. The home crowd booed them down 31 at halftime on Tuesday. At one point, the Bucks matched their longest losing streak, seven, since Giannis Antetokounmpo was drafted. They haven’t won three in a row all season.

At the halfway point of the schedule, the writing is on the wall. The Bucks just aren’t good. The way things look now, they would be lucky to grab a play-in spot. Are they bad enough to actually end up as a lottery team? According to the percentages, the answer is yes. And while that makes Giannis less likely to stick around, if he does, picking in the top 10 would also give the franchise a dose of hope for next season. The prospect is a terrifying one, but it could also be a silver lining for a team that, play-in bound or not, likely isn’t making playoff waves regardless.

Drafting in the top 10 would not be worst thing in the world

Clearly, this team has fundamental flaws. They’ve been bitten by injuries, yes, but the roster, contrary to preseason hopes, simply isn’t good enough. The Bucks need both size and playmaking. Doc Rivers is probably past his expiration date as a head coach in the NBA. Fans want him fired. This group is a mess and there is no obvious way out of it. With just one tradeable draft pick, the front office doesn’t have much leverage to move the needle in a realistic way at the trade deadline.

For the future health of the franchise, the best way forward would be to hold onto their assets and see if they can’t improve via the draft this summer.

Here’s the reality. Per Tankathon, the Bucks have a 96.9% chance of picking in the top 10. They currently hold a 50.7% likelihood of drafting at No. 9. Their pick has a 20.2% chance of falling in the top 4, but that’s a tricky business. Atlanta owns the better of Milwaukee’s and New Orleans’ first-round selections, so the Bucks must finish ahead of the Pelicans to retain their pick. As long as the bottom doesn’t fall out, that shouldn’t be too hard. At 10-33, New Orleans holds the second worst record in the league behind only the Indiana Pacers.

What this all means is that the Bucks probably are not in line for a top four selection, but getting the 9th or 10th pick could still net a valuable rotation player. They have not picked that high since drafting No. 10 in 2016 (Thon Maker) and, before that, second overall in 2014 (Jabari Parker).

Jan 13, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts in the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

On the flip side, if Giannis, who will be extension-eligible this summer, is still on board, the Bucks could put together a much more appealing pick package in a trade. At that point, they will gain access to three tradeable first-rounders: 2026, 2031, and 2033. Whether in a single move or several, using them to go all-in to win now could actually bring back some significant pieces that give the Bucks a chance of being a true contender.

This article first appeared on WI Sports Heroics and was syndicated with permission.

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