Examining The Pick Swaps In The LaMelo Ball Trade

Pick swaps could be especially valuable in the coming years based on the changes to the NBA’s draft lottery format. Sixteen teams – instead of 14 – will now be involved in the lottery, and the odds have been flattened to such an extent that it won’t be a massive surprise if a middle-of-the-pack team gets the No. 1 pick and the worst team in the league ends up at No. 12.

Given the element of randomness inherent in the system, pick swaps could essentially give teams two shots at a top pick, assuming both teams end up in the lottery.

But just how valuable are the first-round swaps the Hornets are getting from the Timberwolves? It’s worth stressing that we won’t know the exact terms until after the trade is officially completed (which should happen in July), so we can only base our analysis on what’s been reported so far.

Still, taking into account Minnesota’s previous deals involving draft picks, it looks like a couple of those swaps won’t simply be a matter of Charlotte being able to swap its own first-rounder for the Wolves’ pick.

Let’s take a closer look.

2028

This one, at least is simple enough. The Timberwolves haven’t previously included their 2028 first-round pick in any trades, so the Hornets should have free rein to swap their own first-rounder for Minnesota’s pick if the Wolves’ selection is more favorable.

2029

When the Timberwolves made their blockbuster deal for Rudy Gobert during the 2022 offseason, they included their 2029 first-round pick with top-five protection. The Jazz later added “least favorable” language to that pick in a separate deal with Phoenix, but for our purposes, the only thing that matters is the fact that Minnesota will only actually control its 2029 first-rounder if it lands in the top five.

We can safely assume that means that if the pick lands between 6-30, Charlotte won’t be able to use its swap rights, since the Wolves won’t have a first-rounder to swap. If Minnesota misses the playoffs and ends up in the top five via the lottery, the Hornets could strike paydirt with this swap — it’s just a bit of a long shot.

2030

During the 2023 offseason, the Spurs acquired the right to swap 2030 first-round picks with the Mavericks. A year later, in the trade that allowed the Timberwolves to draft Rob Dillingham, the Spurs gained the right to swap either the Mavs’ or their own pick (whichever one is most favorable) for the Timberwolves’ first-rounder, unless Minnesota’s pick is No. 1 overall, in which case the Wolves will get to keep it.

That means there are several possibilities for which pick the Timberwolves could end up with, so bear with me here. If their pick is first overall, they’ll simply hang onto it. If not, they’ll whichever pick is least favorable out of the following two first-rounders:

1. Their own pick.
2. Either the Spurs’ or Mavericks’ pick (whichever is more favorable).

It seems relatively safe to assume the Hornets will have the ability to swap their own first-rounder for whichever of those first-rounders the Wolves end up with outside of No. 1. The only real question is whether the top-one protection will remain in place for Charlotte, preventing the Hornets from using their swap rights if Minnesota’s pick lands first overall. We’ll need to wait for further clarity on that point.

Overall, while the swaps the Hornets are acquiring in the Ball blockbuster hold some appeal, the conditions on the 2029 and 2030 picks make them quite a bit less valuable than they’d be if they were simply straight swaps.

Note: Information from RealGM was used to confirm draft pick details in this article.