Off-season overhauls for many NBA teams prompt major questions. Here are tactical quandaries facing three teams this season:
How will Raptors replace Kawhi Leonard’s offense?
Perhaps because of his all-world defensive ability, Leonard’s offensive impact often gets short-changed. For the defending champion Raptors, his impact on the team’s offense was undeniable.
In the 2,040 regular-season minutes Leonard was on the floor last season, Toronto scored 114.9 points per 100 possessions. During the 1,936 minutes he was on the bench, that number plummeted to 106.8 -- the mark of a bottom-five NBA offense. That’s quite a worrisome figure for Raptors fans now that Leonard plays for the Clippers.
What’s even more concerning is that despite head coach Nick Nurse’s success in making Toronto a more analytically friendly offense, the team still relied on Leonard to bail them out in old-fashioned isolations. Although he played only 60 games last season, Leonard had nearly double the isolation possessions (235) as his next-closest teammate, Pascal Siakam (121), per Synergy Sports data. And as far as isolations go, Leonard was pretty efficient. His 1.05 points-per- isolation possession was a mark that the vast majority of NBA offenses would love to reach.
The natural place to look when seeking a way to fill this massive hole in the team’s offense is Siakam. Only 25, the talented, young forward is about to enter his prime. Raptors fans can only hope he can continue his ascent toward stardom by taking another big leap this season.
But if Siakam doesn't, things get a lot dicier for Toronto. Kyle Lowry (33 years old) and Marc Gasol (34) never were traditional offensive bell cows. Asking them to shoulder a bigger offensive burden as they creep toward their NBA sunsets is likely a recipe for failure. Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell could emerge, but their skill sets seem built more to play off others than be at the center of a defense’s attention.
Even bigger questions surround the rest of the supporting cast. OG Anunoby had bright moments during the preseason but has yet to show he’s anything more than a complementary piece. Stanley Johnson, a former lottery pick, aims to revive his career, and Patrick McCaw is still trying to get his off the ground after a promising rookie season three years ago in Golden State. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a slightly more proven commodity, but his value comes on defense.
The rest of the roster is full of wild cards. One player to keep an eye on is rookie Matt Thomas. After going undrafted, Thomas spent the past two seasons in the ACB, Spain’s domestic league, where he established himself as a multi-faceted shooting savant. Though there’s never a guarantee production in the ACB will carry over, Thomas has potential to emerge as a second-unit scorer.
Yet the very fact the Raptors might need an undrafted rookie from the ACB to make up for lost production shows the massive impact of the defection of Leonard. There might be just enough firepower still left on the roster that Nurse could mix and match his way into a rotation that keeps defenses on their toes. How Toronto’s head coach makes the offense go without Leonard will be intriguing.
How does Jimmy Butler work in Miami?
Ever since the Big Three Era ended in Miami, head coach Erik Spoelstra has had his share of funky rosters. In fact, South Beach has become something of an island (or, I guess, beach) of misfit toys. Whether he's saddled with a wing who can’t shoot, a big man without a position or a guard without a classic skill set, Spoelstra finds a way to make his offense work around those players. That was good practice for the arrival of Butler.
When it comes to star players, Butler has perhaps the most weirdly effective game in the NBA. Miami’s new star guard has never been truly elite at any one action or skill. Butler’s not a pick-and-roll maestro or an isolation savant. He can shoot threes, but not great (34.7 percent in his career). He draws fouls, but he isn’t exactly James Harden. Butler is essentially just a jack-of-all trades star -- ranging from “OK” to “pretty good” at a lot of different things.
The Heat’s returning core doesn’t seem to mesh well with Butler’s funky style. Even though injuries and age have slowed him, veteran point guard Goran Dragic has made his name as a bull in transition (though Dragic appears to be slotted into coming off the Miami bench for now). Justise Winslow looked like his development was stalled until Spoelstra turned him into an oversized point guard -- a move similar to the one he made with veteran forward James Johnson.
In the front court, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard can stretch the floor, but they often operate in an ambiguous position between forward and center. Then there’s the emerging Bam Adebayo, who is just figuring how far he can spread his wings. He might be the best hope for a legitimate star alongside Butler. Spoelstra clearly has a delicate balancing act on his hands.
The good news for the Miami coach is he likely doesn’t have to be perfect to see Butler’s presence on the court net results. Miami had the league’s 26th-ranked offense last season, finishing just behind a 19-win Cleveland team. Given that Butler has a track record of making offenses better wherever he goes, Miami should be able to score.
But if Miami wants to make a real push toward the top of the East, Butler, Spoelstra and the rest of South Beach’s misfit toys must find a way to gel into something uniquely special.
Will Dejounte Murray mesh in Spurs back court?
Last season was supposed to be Murray’s breakout campaign. Then he suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in the preseason and was lost for the 2018-19 season. His return to full health seems to be a reason for unbridled excitement among Spurs fans. Yet things aren’t that straightforward in San Antonio.
When they dealt Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors during the summer of 2018, the Spurs made sure they received proven veterans in return. The centerpiece of that package was four-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan. On the surface, that swap made sense. Replace an All-Star with another All-Star, and keep the great Spurs machine running toward another playoff appearance.
Underneath that superficial logic lurked warning signs about DeRozan’s impact. Per Cleaning the Glass data, the veteran guard has spent more seasons making his team’s offense worse (5) than better (4). So it shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise when the Spurs finished last season nearly 4.5 points points per possession better offensively with DeRozan on the bench.
Now this is where it’s important to point out that on/off data isn’t unassailable. In the case of last season’s Spurs, the bench was an offensive powerhouse. Couple that with the fact that, as a starter, DeRozan typically faces tougher opposition and you see why such a split might be an unfair representation of his contributions.
Yet all that said, there seems to be a clear clash when it comes to how DeRozan will fare when paired with Murray, who is the team’s future; DeRozan is barely hanging on as the team’s present. Both players are best served with the ball in their hands -- each has minimal value off the ball.
If any system could hide such deficiencies, it would be San Antonio’s whirring blend of hand-offs, pick-and-rolls, cuts and rapid ball movement. But all the motion and passing in the world still might not be enough to save an ill-fated pairing. The preseason might even have flashed that warning sign already as the two games Murray played sans DeRozan were noticeably better than the three they played together.
This presents an interesting challenge for head coach Gregg Popovich. Does he play them together or apart? If he sticks with them in the same starting unit, will Popovich stick with his patented, read-based offense hoping Murray and DeRozan will organically find a productive partnership? Or will Popovich design specific plays that mitigates the two players’ shortcomings in order to keep them on the floor together? How those questions are answered won’t just affect this Spurs season, but potentially how the team feels about its core going forward.
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