In-Depth Look at Keegan Murray's Extension

Sacramento will look to extend Murray beginning July 1 when rookie extension negotiations may begin. These negotiations will play a large role in the roster’s construction and the team’s financial situation for the next few seasons.

Rookie extensions allow a maximum of 5 years and a salary of up to 25% of the cap (30% if they meet criteria Murray has not met). Subsequent years can include raises or decreases of up to 8%. The salary cap is projected around $170M during the 2026-27 season when Murray’s new contract would begin. 

So, a max offer for Murray would be roughly $246M over 5 years. As explained later, this will not happen (don’t worry, Uncle Keeg will still get paid). 

The former 4th overall pick averaged 12.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 1.4 APG on 44/34/83 splits this season. Sacramento has had strong offensive talent since drafting Murray, allowing him to settle into a tertiary offensive role, much different from his college experience, where he averaged 23.5 PPG as a Sophomore. 

Murray has blossomed into a high-end defender. He ranks in the 98th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, despite a 97th percentile matchup difficulty rating per Basketball Index. The Kings usually asked Murray to guard the other team’s best player, and he was versatile enough to hold his own against all archetypes 1 through 4. 

Murray has become a capable rim protector, ranking in the 89th percentile (Basketball Index) and forcing opponents to shoot 9.1% worse at the rim when guarded by him. These are outstanding numbers for someone typically protecting the rim in weak side help situations. 

He is also outstanding at taking charges, ranking 8th in charges drawn, and has improved as a rebounder every season. 

Unfortunately, greater defensive responsibility and a changed offense led to shooting regression. His 3PT% has dropped from 41.1% his rookie season to around 35% his last two seasons. Considering Murray’s low-usage offensive role, hitting threes will play a large role in how he is perceived despite notable improvement in most other areas of his game. 

There remain reasons for optimism. Murray finished this season strong, shooting 38% on 6.5 attempts per game after the All-Star break. As KingsFilmRoom noted, Murray shot 43% on wide open threes. He can clearly still hit shots when he has time to set and release.

Despite the shooting woes, Murray is the Kings’ most important role player, and one of the few young players on the roster that can be considered a building block.

There is clear precedent for Murray’s negotiations. Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels and Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III immediately come to mind as recently extended comparable players. 

McDaniels received a 5 year, $131M extension in 2023 after posting similar numbers in a supplemental offensive role while taking the most difficult perimeter matchup. 

Murphy signed a 4 year, $128M extension last offseason. This is now widely seen as a bargain given the offensive leap he has taken.

There is plenty of precedent beyond McDaniels and Murphy III. All of the below players were signed to extensions after their third season:

Since Murray is the fourth option on offense, his scoring and assist numbers understandably lag behind, but he compares favorably in many other statistics.. 

Improving to around league-average 3P%, paired with his defensive prowess and improved rebounding, puts Murray in the McDaniels-Murphy range. Showcasing more offensive versatility would immediately make it a Murphy-esque value contract. 

The market has been kind to wings. Comparable extensions with adjusted salaries below:

Desmond Bane is a clear outlier here - statistically and contractually. He serves to show the profile of a player who gets close to the rookie max extension. Keegan will likely not land that contract, but there are strong arguments for his inclusion in the Murphy/Johnson/McDaniels/Hunter range. 

It should not surprise anyone if Murray receives an extension worth over $30M annually. Structure, incentives, and length may vary, but that is the going rate for this skill set. 

Importantly, paying Murray this much will put the Kings over the salary cap and close to the luxury tax, which they have not paid in several decades. 

Should the sides not reach an agreement this offseason, they cannot revisit negotiations until next offseason during  restricted free agency. There is ample precedent for big wings in this scenario.

Cam Johnson jumps off the page as a very similar player, and a good approximation of the salary Kings fans should expect Murray to command should he have another productive season. 

Given the Kings’ spending tendencies, they may opt to wait and allow Murray to hit the restricted market so he either has a similar or worse season, allowing them to sign him for less. 

This strategy can backfire, though, and Sacramento has experienced this before. They lost Bogdan Bogdanovic in restricted free agency in 2020. Given the high-usage players filling out the Kings roster, the chances for that leap feel slim absent bad injury luck forcing more usage out of Murray. 

In sum, Keegan Murray has developed into a two way force who is essential to the Kings’ plans regardless of how the new front office decides to tweak the roster. Sacramento should not hesitate to extend Murray in the 4 year, $120-136M range. Hopefully, Scott Perry and the front office agree, and are willing to spend to secure a key piece for the next era of Kings basketball.