Jazz’s Latest Developments Make Walker Kessler Expendable

Isaiah Collier Emerges

The day before the big trade, Collier put up 19 points and seven assists against the Toronto Raptors while starting in place of Keyonte George. In a game that featured Lauri Markkanen, Ace Bailey, Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram, he was the best player.

Then, the night that Utah completed their trade for Jackson, Collier tallied 22 assists in a win over the Indiana Pacers. That’s not just a career-high for Collier, who broke Hall of Fame point guard John Stockton’s single-season rookie assist record. It’s not just the most assists a Jazzman has had in a game since Stockton (h/t StatMuse) He’s the youngest player in NBA history to record 20+ assists in a single game.

Not LeBron James. Not Trae Young or Luka Doncic. Collier.

The 21-year-old followed up that scintillating showcase with a 25-point, 11-assist double-double against the Atlanta Hawks. For the second straight game, he played all 48 minutes. With that, he’s now developing a national reputation as an ironman and elite facilitator. More importantly, he’s showing the Jazz that he might be their true franchise point guard. That’s not to say that George, in the midst of a career season, should be demoted. However, the 6-foot-4 playmaker is closer to their Donovan Mitchell than their Deron Williams (or Stockton).

The Jaren Jackson Jr. Conundrum

To this point of his career, Jackson’s spent 40 percent of his minutes at power forward and 59 percent of his minutes at center. Listed at 6-foot-10 and 242 pounds, with a 7-foot-4 wingspan to boot, the fact he’s not a full-time center isn’t due to him being undersized.

At the offensive end, Jackson has an affinity towards perimeter jumpers. Over the course of his career, he’s taken anywhere from 24.1% to 48.9% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc. In total, 43.7% percent of his shots have come from at least 10 feet away from the rim.

Jackson’s effectiveness around the rim is also limited as a rebounder. The 2023 FIBA World Cup may have been the first time a large swath of fans noticed his deficiencies in that area. On a world stage, they saw him average 2.9 rebounds per contest and 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, listed at 6-foot-4, outperformed him in both categories.

At the same time, the 26-year-old has been an exemplary rim-protector. He’s capable of swatting shots as a help defender and turning them away when challenging them straight-up. With that in mind, Jackson’s led the NBA in blocks per game twice. In 2022-23, he averaged a league-high 3.0 blocks per game, helping him win Defensive Player of the Year honors. Along with his measurables, this rather traditional strength of his is what helps him thrive at center.

Walker Kessler’s Leverage Has Been Lowered

The Jazz want to re-sign Kessler, an impending free agent who’ll be in-demand.

However, Jackson prevents them from having to negotiate from a point of desperation. The 2022-23 All-Rookie selection is a superb rebounder with a career average of 9.3 rebounds per game. He’s an intimidating defensive presence at 7-foot-2 and 245 pounds, averaging 2.4 blocks per game to top it off.

Yet, he’s no longer Utah’s only big man who can protect the paint at a high level. Furthermore, the outside jumper that would have made him a mismatch weapon is still in it’s experimental stages, whereas Jackson’s ability to hurt opponents from downtown is a hallmark of his game.

What Will Be The Jazz’s Starting Lineup?

If the Jazz were to make Jackson their starting center, it wouldn’t be all about Kessler’s free agent status. Among players with at least 200 drives this season, there are three Jazzmen with a passing rate below 25 percent: Jackson (11.5%), George (23.0%), and Markkanen (23.4%). That lack of ball-movement among three projected starters could lead to quite a few ill-advised field goal attempts.

With that in mind, Kessler did show himself to be an evolved facilitator this season, averaging 3.0 assists per game. However, Kessler’s ability to operate as a fulcrum pales in comparison to Collier’s mastery as a maestro. If Utah wants to maximize their movement with Jackson, George and Markkanen as core players, then Collier is key.

In that event, the Jazz would start Collier at point guard, George at shooting guard, Bailey at small forward, Markkanen at power forward and Jackson at center. As previously mentioned, this will limit the starting lineup’s presence on the glass. However, if not only Jackson but Bailey and Markkanen make a more concerted effort to pull down boards, it won’t be a weakness.

There’s a benefit to Utah starting Collier at the defensive end, too.

Though George has been much sharper this season, opposing ball-handlers still get by him too easily. That can’t be said of Collier, a thickly built point guard who plays staunch point-of-attack defense. With that being said, the basic premise is that Collier is a better defender than George. However, considering that point guards often one of a team’s better scorers, having Collier hounding them goes a long way towards the Jazz being a more balanced team. To that point, Utah currently has the sixth-highest scoring average (118.3) in the NBA. Yet, they rank 30th in opponent’s points per game (126.8) and defensive rating (123.3).